Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés v Getafe

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 17:30 UTC

Final: Alavés 3–0 Getafe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés (Local)

Prediction 40.84%2.45fair odd
EV -0.357%
Edge -0.146%
Kelly -0.248%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.38%40.87%40.77%42.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.302.4445.45%43.26%43.48%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Getafe (Visit)

Prediction 24.98%4.00fair odd
EV +2.66%
Edge +0.648%
Kelly +0.856%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.59%24.95%25.12%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.783.804.1127.78%26.42%26.32%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.18%2.93fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.781%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.21%34.17%34.11%35.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.752.752.8638.02%36.37%36.36%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alavés (Local): 40.84%; Getafe (Visit): 24.98%; Draw: 34.18%. For Getafe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.11, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.52%EV -6.89%E -3.02%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.59%EV +2.66%E +0.648%K +0.856%G +0.023%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.90%EV -2.23%E -0.781%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 17:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.44%EV -4.85%E -2.08%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.08%EV +0.165%E +0.041%K +0.055%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.48%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.44%EV -4.85%E -2.08%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.08%EV +0.165%E +0.041%K +0.055%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.48%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 17:19
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.21%EV -4.03%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.21%EV -0.085%E -0.021%K -0.028%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 17:20
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -0.085%E -0.021%K -0.028%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 17:24
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.00%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -0.085%E -0.021%K -0.028%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 17:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.57%EV -1.99%E -0.829%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.65%EV -1.33%E -0.338%K -0.452%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.78%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-15 17:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.57%EV -1.99%E -0.829%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.65%EV -1.33%E -0.338%K -0.452%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.78%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-15 17:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.57%EV -1.99%E -0.829%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.65%EV -1.33%E -0.338%K -0.452%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.78%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-15 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%EV -2.81%E -1.18%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -1.33%E -0.338%K -0.452%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.66%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 17:19
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.03%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV -2.58%E -0.662%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.37%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 17:25
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.70%EV -4.03%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.52%EV -2.58%E -0.662%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.78%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 17:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -2.58%E -0.662%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.07%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 17:25
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.22%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -2.58%E -0.662%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.47%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 17:19
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -2.58%E -0.662%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 17:19
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.77%EV -0.357%E -0.146%K -0.248%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -3.83%E -0.995%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 35.03%EV -5.31%E -1.92%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.19%EV -1.58%E -0.657%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.22%EV -4.08%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.59%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 17:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.93%EV -4.03%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.31%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.75%EV -2.58%E -0.904%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 06:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.38%EV -2.81%E -1.18%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.29%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.33%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 05:59
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 17:24
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 17:23
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 17:25
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.39%EV -4.85%E -2.08%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 17:20
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.39%EV -4.85%E -2.08%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 17:19
Bally Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.39%EV -4.85%E -2.08%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 17:20
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.39%EV -4.85%E -2.08%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 17:20
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 17:24
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:19
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.23%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -10.16%E -4.62%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.63%EV -10.10%E -3.84%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 17:25
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -1.99%E -0.829%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 17:25
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.35%EV -4.03%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.36%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 17:23
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 17:15
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 17:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 17:19
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 17:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 17:15
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 17:10
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.01%EV -4.03%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -7.02%E -2.58%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 17:24
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.01%EV -4.03%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -7.02%E -2.58%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 17:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.38%EV -6.89%E -3.02%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -9.41%E -3.55%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.38%EV -6.89%E -3.02%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -9.41%E -3.55%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 17:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.32%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.21%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 17:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.32%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.21%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 17:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.61%EV -7.30%E -3.22%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.25%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 17:25
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -6.89%E -3.02%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -9.41%E -3.55%K -5.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 17:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -6.89%E -3.02%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -9.41%E -3.55%K -5.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 17:19
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.44%EV -9.41%E -3.55%K -5.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 17:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -1.99%E -0.829%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 15:54
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -4.28%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:24
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 17:09
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 17:24
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 17:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 17:05
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -6.07%E -2.64%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.70%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 17:24
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 17:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.00%2.94I 34.01%NM 34.01%-0.0%2026-08-15 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.79%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%0.5%2026-08-15 17:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.79%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%0.5%2026-08-15 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.79%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%0.5%2026-08-15 17:25
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.70%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%0.7%2026-08-15 17:25
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.37%1.0%2026-08-15 17:25