La escuela de los momios

Alavés v Getafe

2026-08-15 17:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Resultado del partido

39 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alavés (Local)

Predicción 39.74%2.52momio equitativo
EV -0.658%
Ventaja -0.263%
Kelly -0.439%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.63%39.68%39.78%40.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.352.352.5046.51%42.64%42.55%40.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Getafe (Visitante)

Predicción 26.84%3.73momio equitativo
EV -0.709%
Ventaja -0.192%
Kelly -0.262%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.51%26.78%26.91%27.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.463.403.7030.30%28.93%29.41%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 33.43%2.99momio equitativo
EV -1.39%
Ventaja -0.471%
Kelly -0.712%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.98%33.54%33.30%35.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.572.812.802.9538.91%35.65%35.71%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 39.38%EV -0.658%E -0.263%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 27.12%EV -2.59%E -0.713%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.49%EV -1.72%E -0.586%K -0.888%G +0.000%1.6%2026-07-25 07:14
LowVig.ag2.47I 40.49%NM 39.11%EV -1.85%E -0.749%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.39%EV -1.78%E -0.487%K -0.670%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.50%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-22 15:39
BetOnline.ag2.47I 40.49%NM 39.11%EV -1.85%E -0.749%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.39%EV -1.78%E -0.487%K -0.670%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.50%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-22 20:49
Marathon Bet2.46I 40.65%NM 39.40%EV -2.25%E -0.914%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.07%EV -3.93%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.53%EV -3.39%E -1.17%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-25 07:10
Pinnacle2.45I 40.82%NM 38.88%EV -2.64%E -1.08%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -2.05%E -0.562%K -0.774%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.02%EV -9.08%E -3.34%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 20:20
Bovada2.45I 40.82%NM 38.69%EV -2.64%E -1.08%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.39%E -0.942%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.98%EV -9.41%E -3.47%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-19 20:17
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.79%EV -4.63%E -1.93%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -3.06%E -1.06%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-14 12:59
Codere (IT)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%EV -4.63%E -1.93%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -4.73%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-24 14:35
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -4.63%E -1.93%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 00:25
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -7.42%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -2.39%E -0.819%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 19:10
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -7.42%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -2.39%E -0.819%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 19:09
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -3.73%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-14 11:29
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-19 00:25
Betway2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -12.42%E -4.74%K -7.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-19 22:45
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -5.82%E -2.46%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -3.06%E -1.06%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 19:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.64%EV -5.82%E -2.46%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.73%EV -4.06%E -1.42%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-16 08:15
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -1.39%E -0.471%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-14 11:29
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -3.06%E -1.06%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 11:29
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -0.709%E -0.192%K -0.262%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-19 20:25
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-16 08:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-16 08:15
BetUS2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-14 21:04
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-22 13:49
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.06%E -1.06%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-24 19:20
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -3.06%E -1.06%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 11:29
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -3.73%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-14 11:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -3.73%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-14 11:29
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-24 11:30
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -10.10%E -3.02%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 06:35
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-25 16:35
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 14:35
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 14:29
betano_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 14:33
PlayUp2.28I 43.86%NM 39.92%EV -9.40%E -4.12%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -11.44%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 04:05
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -10.59%E -4.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -3.73%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-14 11:29
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.59%E -4.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.44%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-24 14:35
Betclic (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 40.04%EV -11.39%E -5.11%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -10.10%E -3.02%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.31%EV -10.41%E -3.89%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 14:34
NetBet (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 39.42%EV -11.78%E -5.31%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -11.44%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.05%EV -14.09%E -5.48%K -8.97%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 07:00
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.60%EV -14.57%E -6.77%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.45%EV -11.44%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.94%EV -11.42%E -4.31%K -6.92%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-24 14:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.77%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.15%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%4.8%2026-07-26 02:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.77%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.15%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%4.8%2026-07-26 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.77%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.15%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%4.8%2026-07-26 02:00
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 39.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.01%5.8%2026-07-26 02:25