The School of Odds
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Neom v Al-Shabab

Kickoff: 2026-05-11 16:50 UTC

Final: Neom 2–1 Al-Shabab

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Neom (Local)

Prediction 44.74%2.24fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.74%44.60%44.69%45.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.052.1551.28%48.87%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Shabab (Visit)

Prediction 31.02%3.22fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.68%31.00%31.10%31.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.953.003.1037.04%33.88%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.24%4.12fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.386%
Kelly -0.512%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.42%24.40%24.20%27.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.613.604.0632.26%27.68%27.78%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 44.74%; Al-Shabab (Visit): 31.02%; Draw: 24.24%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.06, with an expected value of -1.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -3.82%E -1.78%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -3.84%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 16:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -3.82%E -1.78%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-11 16:19
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.50%EV -6.50%E -3.11%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.08%EV -5.08%E -1.66%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.42%EV -1.57%E -0.386%K -0.512%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 16:20
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.85%EV -6.95%E -3.34%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.05%EV -5.93%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.48%EV -6.95%E -3.34%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 16:19
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -6.95%E -3.34%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -5.39%E -1.77%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 16:30
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -6.95%E -3.34%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -5.39%E -1.77%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -6.95%E -3.34%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -5.39%E -1.77%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 16:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -6.95%E -3.34%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -5.39%E -1.77%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -6.95%E -3.34%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -5.39%E -1.77%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 16:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -6.95%E -3.34%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -5.39%E -1.77%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 16:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.11%EV -7.84%E -3.81%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -13.93%E -3.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 16:29
LeoVegas🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.11%EV -7.84%E -3.81%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -13.93%E -3.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 16:30
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -8.29%E -4.04%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 16:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -8.29%E -4.04%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -8.49%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -7.87%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 16:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -8.29%E -4.04%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -10.04%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -7.87%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 16:19
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -8.29%E -4.04%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -13.15%E -4.70%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -17.57%E -5.17%K -7.32%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-11 16:25
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -8.29%E -4.04%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -13.15%E -4.70%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -17.57%E -5.17%K -7.32%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-11 16:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -8.29%E -4.04%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -13.15%E -4.70%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -17.57%E -5.17%K -7.32%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-11 16:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -8.29%E -4.04%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -13.15%E -4.70%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -17.57%E -5.17%K -7.32%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-11 16:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.63%E -4.77%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -8.49%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -16.36%E -4.74%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-11 16:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.63%E -4.77%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -8.49%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -16.36%E -4.74%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-11 16:29
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -10.53%E -5.26%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.87%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -10.53%E -5.26%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 16:22
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -10.53%E -5.26%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%EV -10.53%E -5.26%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -11.60%E -4.07%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.11%EV -10.29%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-11 16:19
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -10.53%E -5.26%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.04%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-11 16:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.07%EV -10.53%E -5.26%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -10.04%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -16.36%E -4.74%K -6.68%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-11 16:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -10.53%E -5.26%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -10.67%E -3.70%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -24.84%E -8.01%K -11.83%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-11 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -12.76%E -6.55%K -13.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.53%EV -11.60%E -4.07%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -15.14%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-11 16:25
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.17%EV -12.76%E -6.55%K -13.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.90%EV -16.25%E -6.02%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.93%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-11 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.55%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%2.0%2026-05-11 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.55%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%2.0%2026-05-11 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.55%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%2.0%2026-05-11 16:25
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.78%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.51%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.71%2.4%2026-05-11 16:19
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 45.62%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%2.9%2026-05-11 16:30