Language:English
Damac v Al-Qadsiah
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Damac (Local)
Prediction 16.12%6.21fair odd
EV +8.78%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.134%
assuming max odds 6.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.63%16.15%16.09%17.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.986.006.7520.00%16.72%16.67%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Qadsiah (Visit)
Prediction 62.88%1.59fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -5.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.43%62.97%62.87%65.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.431.411.5474.07%70.13%70.92%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.00%4.76fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.213%
Kelly +0.269%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.68%20.87%21.04%22.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.294.354.8126.67%23.31%22.99%20.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Damac (Local): 16.12%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 62.88%; Draw: 21.00%. For Damac (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.21. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV +8.78%E +1.30%K +1.53%G +0.134% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.34%E -8.04%K -27.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 15:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV +8.78%E +1.30%K +1.53%G +0.134% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.34%E -8.04%K -27.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 15:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV +8.78%E +1.30%K +1.53%G +0.134% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.34%E -8.04%K -27.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 15:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV +8.78%E +1.30%K +1.53%G +0.134% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.34%E -8.04%K -27.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 15:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.63I 15.08%NM 14.64%EV +6.85%E +1.03%K +1.22%G +0.083% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.04%EV -3.16%E -2.05%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +4.75%E +0.731%K +0.864%G +0.041% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%EV -10.71%E -7.54%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -7.58%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +4.75%E +0.731%K +0.864%G +0.041% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%EV -10.71%E -7.54%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -7.58%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV +4.75%E +0.731%K +0.864%G +0.041% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV +4.75%E +0.731%K +0.864%G +0.041% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.77%EV +3.14%E +0.490%K +0.581%G +0.018% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.26%EV -15.11%E -11.19%K -43.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.98%EV -11.79%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-09 15:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.03%EV +1.53%E +0.242%K +0.288%G +0.004% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -8.82%E -6.08%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.81I 20.79%NM 19.68%EV +1.03%E +0.213%K +0.269%G +0.003% | 5.6% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.22%EV +0.722%E +0.115%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 64.87%EV -13.85%E -10.11%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.22%EV +0.722%E +0.115%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 64.87%EV -13.85%E -10.11%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -3.31%E -0.551%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -8.82%E -6.08%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -9.69%E -2.25%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-09 15:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -3.31%E -0.551%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -9.45%E -6.56%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.06%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -3.31%E -0.551%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -11.79%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.34%E -1.28%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.68%E -3.79%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -3.38%E -0.736%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-09 15:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.34%E -1.28%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.68%E -3.79%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -3.38%E -0.736%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-09 15:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.28%EV -7.34%E -1.28%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.76%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -15.99%E -4.00%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -9.75%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.11%EV -9.45%E -6.56%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -7.58%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-09 15:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -5.68%E -3.79%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 15:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -9.45%E -6.56%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -15.99%E -4.00%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.86%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.32%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.81%EV -15.99%E -4.00%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.86%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.32%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.81%EV -15.99%E -4.00%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.86%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.32%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.81%EV -15.99%E -4.00%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.64%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.43%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -21.24%E -5.66%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -12.98%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.44%EV -9.45%E -6.56%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.91%EV -9.69%E -2.25%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-09 15:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -16.20%E -3.12%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.30%EV -8.19%E -5.61%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -5.48%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-09 15:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.62%EV -17.81%E -3.49%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.96%EV -8.82%E -6.08%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.42%EV -7.58%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-09 15:46 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -19.42%E -3.88%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.98%EV -11.97%E -8.55%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.66%EV -11.79%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.82% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.44% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.85% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.71% | 0.6% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65% | 0.9% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.85% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78% | 1.1% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.39% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.79% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.82% | 2.2% | 2026-04-09 15:55 |