The School of Odds
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Damac v Al-Okhdood

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 18:00 UTC

Final: Damac 2–0 Al-Okhdood

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Damac (Local)

Prediction 58.97%1.70fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -6.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.30%58.99%58.76%61.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.571.6366.67%63.39%63.69%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Okhdood (Visit)

Prediction 17.72%5.64fair odd
EV +2.75%
Edge +0.474%
Kelly +0.573%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.83%17.63%17.91%19.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.984.805.8021.74%20.10%20.83%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.31%4.29fair odd
EV -0.921%
Edge -0.217%
Kelly -0.283%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.33%23.38%23.33%25.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.803.804.2529.41%26.35%26.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Damac (Local): 58.97%; Al-Okhdood (Visit): 17.72%; Draw: 23.31%. For Al-Okhdood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.54%E -7.70%K -23.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV +2.75%E +0.474%K +0.573%G +0.016%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.75%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 17:39
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.82%EV -8.00%E -5.13%K -14.29%G +0.000%5.63I 17.76%NM 16.85%EV -0.260%E -0.046%K -0.056%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.33%EV -0.921%E -0.217%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 17:50
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.50%EV -3.88%E -2.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.41%EV -1.32%E -0.237%K -0.289%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%EV -2.09%E -0.497%K -0.652%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.65%E -3.53%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -2.56%E -0.466%K -0.570%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.75%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 17:54
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -7.41%E -4.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -2.56%E -0.466%K -0.570%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -12.58%E -3.35%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.17%EV -10.95%E -7.25%K -21.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV -4.33%E -0.803%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -7.91%E -2.00%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 17:52
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -5.65%E -3.53%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -6.99%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.75%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -5.65%E -3.53%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -6.99%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.08%E -2.33%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.26%EV -8.00%E -5.13%K -14.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -9.65%E -1.89%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 17:54
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -8.59%E -5.54%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -11.42%E -2.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.77%E -6.39%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.42%E -2.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-23 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.77%EV -9.77%E -6.39%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -11.42%E -2.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -16.07%E -4.47%K -6.18%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.95%EV -9.77%E -6.39%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.43%EV -11.42%E -2.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -20.74%E -6.10%K -8.64%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-23 17:53
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.37%EV -8.00%E -5.13%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -13.19%E -2.69%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -7.91%E -2.00%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 17:54
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -7.41%E -4.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -14.96%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -16.07%E -4.47%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 17:54
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -7.41%E -4.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -14.96%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -16.07%E -4.47%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -7.41%E -4.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -14.96%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -16.07%E -4.47%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -7.41%E -4.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -14.96%E -3.12%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -16.07%E -4.47%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 17:54
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.43%EV -3.88%E -2.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -15.85%E -3.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.43%EV -3.88%E -2.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -15.85%E -3.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.43%EV -3.88%E -2.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -15.85%E -3.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:54
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.43%EV -3.88%E -2.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -15.85%E -3.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.43%EV -3.88%E -2.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -15.85%E -3.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.43%EV -3.88%E -2.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -15.85%E -3.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -9.77%E -6.39%K -18.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -15.85%E -3.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -12.58%E -3.35%K -4.57%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.44%EV -5.06%E -3.14%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -16.74%E -3.56%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -12.58%E -3.35%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 17:54
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.44%EV -5.06%E -3.14%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -16.74%E -3.56%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -12.58%E -3.35%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.88%EV -9.18%E -5.96%K -17.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.97%EV -16.74%E -3.56%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%EV -10.25%E -2.66%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.30%EV -6.83%E -4.32%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -18.51%E -4.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.37%EV -14.91%E -4.08%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.30%EV -6.83%E -4.32%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -18.51%E -4.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.37%EV -14.91%E -4.08%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.61%EV -8.00%E -5.13%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -18.51%E -4.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.19%EV -14.91%E -4.08%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.30%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%1.6%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.30%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%1.6%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.45%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.92%1.9%2026-04-23 17:55
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.52%2.0%2026-04-23 17:55
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 58.93%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.31%2.8%2026-04-23 17:55