The School of Odds
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Al-Riyadh v Al-Fateh

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:07 UTC

Final: Al-Riyadh 1–0 Al-Fateh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Riyadh (Local)

Prediction 41.15%2.43fair odd
EV +5.35%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +3.43%
Growth +0.184%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.86%41.33%41.18%44.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.5650.00%46.61%46.51%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fateh (Visit)

Prediction 34.71%2.88fair odd
EV +4.12%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +2.06%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.64%34.56%34.78%37.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.732.703.0041.67%36.63%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.14%4.14fair odd
EV -0.548%
Edge -0.133%
Kelly -0.176%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.13%24.10%24.04%26.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.653.654.1232.26%27.42%27.40%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Riyadh (Local): 41.15%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 34.71%; Draw: 24.14%. For Al-Riyadh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.56, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV +5.35%E +2.09%K +3.43%G +0.184%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.42%EV -10.11%E -3.90%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.72%EV -5.38%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 16:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -5.35%E -2.32%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%EV -8.02%E -3.03%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 16:04
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.97%EV -6.58%E -2.90%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.90%EV -5.25%E -1.92%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.13%EV -0.548%E -0.133%K -0.176%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-10 16:04
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -4.55%E -1.66%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 16:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.24%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.89%EV -9.76%E -3.75%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 16:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -11.50%E -4.51%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-10 16:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -9.07%E -3.46%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-10 16:04
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -9.07%E -3.46%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-10 16:04
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.33%EV -13.23%E -5.29%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-10 16:04
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.33%EV -13.23%E -5.29%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-10 16:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.90%EV -10.70%E -4.93%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.05%EV -7.33%E -2.75%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.05%EV -8.76%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-10 16:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -11.52%E -5.36%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -2.82%E -1.01%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 16:04
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -11.52%E -5.36%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.60%EV -6.29%E -2.33%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 16:04
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -11.52%E -5.36%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -6.29%E -2.33%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-10 16:04
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -11.52%E -5.36%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -8.72%E -3.32%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-10 16:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.13%EV -13.58%E -6.47%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.55%EV -13.23%E -5.29%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.33%EV -14.31%E -4.03%K -5.61%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-10 16:04
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -14.40%E -6.92%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV +4.12%E +1.37%K +2.06%G +0.085%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -11.89%E -3.26%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 16:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -14.40%E -6.92%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV +4.12%E +1.37%K +2.06%G +0.085%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -11.89%E -3.26%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 16:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -14.40%E -6.92%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV +4.12%E +1.37%K +2.06%G +0.085%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -11.89%E -3.26%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 16:04
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -14.40%E -6.92%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV +4.12%E +1.37%K +2.06%G +0.085%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -11.89%E -3.26%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 16:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.04%EV -15.22%E -7.39%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV +2.39%E +0.809%K +1.22%G +0.029%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 16:04
LeoVegas🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.04%EV -15.22%E -7.39%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV +2.39%E +0.809%K +1.22%G +0.029%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 16:04
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.26%EV -15.63%E -7.63%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.24%EV -16.70%E -6.96%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.50%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%18.2%2026-05-10 16:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.98%EV -16.87%E -8.35%K -16.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.64%EV +0.652%E +0.225%K +0.343%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-10 16:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.98%EV -16.87%E -8.35%K -16.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.64%EV +0.652%E +0.225%K +0.343%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-10 16:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -17.69%E -8.85%K -17.69%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.65%EV -0.042%E -0.015%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-10 16:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.57%EV -17.69%E -8.85%K -17.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.61%EV -8.72%E -3.32%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.82%EV -25.17%E -8.12%K -11.99%G +0.000%20.3%2026-05-10 16:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 41.04%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.73%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23%0.7%2026-05-10 16:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.06%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.94%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-05-10 16:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.65%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%1.7%2026-05-10 16:04
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 41.83%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.05%3.9%2026-05-10 16:04