Language:English
Al-Qadsiah v Al-Nassr
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Qadsiah (Local)
Prediction 29.06%3.44fair odd
EV +4.90%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.092%
assuming max odds 3.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.84%29.16%29.18%30.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.163.203.6136.36%31.63%31.25%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Nassr (Visit)
Prediction 47.58%2.10fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.02%47.48%47.51%49.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.891.882.0255.25%52.82%53.19%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.36%4.28fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.503%
Kelly -0.660%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.66%23.35%23.31%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.833.854.1930.77%26.13%25.97%23.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 29.06%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 47.58%; Draw: 23.36%. For Al-Qadsiah (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.90%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.84%EV +4.90%E +1.36%K +1.88%G +0.092% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.69%EV -7.22%E -3.70%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.46%EV -3.51%E -0.849%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -4.11%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -10.08%E -5.33%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -4.11%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -10.55%E -5.61%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -4.11%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -10.55%E -5.61%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -4.11%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -10.55%E -5.61%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -4.11%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -10.55%E -5.61%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -4.11%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -10.55%E -5.61%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -4.11%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.72%EV -11.03%E -5.90%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%EV -10.05%E -2.61%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -5.56%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -5.56%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -5.56%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -10.55%E -5.61%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -10.05%E -2.61%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.33%EV -5.85%E -1.81%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.99%EV -5.79%E -2.93%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 22.68%EV -2.11%E -0.503%K -0.660%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.02%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -9.60%E -5.05%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -7.02%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -12.93%E -7.07%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -11.22%E -2.95%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -7.02%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -12.93%E -7.07%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -11.22%E -2.95%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -7.02%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.82%EV -13.88%E -7.67%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -12.39%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -3.89%E -1.93%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-03 17:58 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.22%E -3.70%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 17:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.30%EV -8.65%E -4.50%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.41%EV -9.35%E -2.41%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.62%EV -9.60%E -5.05%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.20%EV -8.88%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -9.12%E -4.78%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.22%E -2.95%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -11.98%E -6.48%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -13.55%E -3.66%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -11.98%E -6.48%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -13.55%E -3.66%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -11.98%E -6.48%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -13.55%E -3.66%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -11.98%E -6.48%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -13.55%E -3.66%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -11.37%E -3.73%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.59%EV -7.70%E -3.97%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.22%E -2.95%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -12.83%E -4.28%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -9.12%E -4.78%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.39%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.07%EV -12.83%E -4.28%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.02%EV -12.93%E -7.07%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.91%EV -24.07%E -7.41%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.97%EV -15.73%E -5.43%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.22%EV -10.55%E -5.61%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.81%EV -14.72%E -4.03%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.72%EV -15.73%E -5.43%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.34%EV -11.50%E -6.18%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.94%EV -15.89%E -4.41%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.90%EV -20.09%E -7.31%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.44%EV -12.93%E -7.07%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.66%EV -12.39%E -3.30%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 17.7% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.39% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27% | 2.3% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.63% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.19% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18% | 2.7% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.44% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07% | 3.2% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.89% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.05% | 3.3% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.12I 32.05%NM 26.44% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 47.13% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 26.44% | 21.2% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |