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Al-Qadsiah v Al-Hazem
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Qadsiah (Local)
Prediction 79.46%1.26fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -3.87%
Kelly -23.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.14%79.52%79.68%82.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.151.151.2090.91%87.08%86.96%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Hazem (Visit)
Prediction 8.20%12.20fair odd
EV +9.03%
Edge +0.679%
Kelly +0.734%
Growth +0.066%
assuming max odds 13.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.89%8.21%7.83%9.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.6112.0013.3010.53%8.61%8.33%7.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.34%8.10fair odd
EV +11.56%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.44%
Growth +0.166%
assuming max odds 9.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.71%12.27%12.49%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.307.009.0415.38%13.70%14.29%11.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 79.46%; Al-Hazem (Visit): 8.20%; Draw: 12.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.10. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.02%EV -6.23%E -5.28%K -34.64%G +0.000% | 13.30I 7.52%NM 7.28%EV +9.03%E +0.679%K +0.734%G +0.066% | 9.04I 11.06%NM 10.71%EV +11.56%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.166% | 3.3% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.45%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.49I 8.01%NM 7.56%EV +2.39%E +0.191%K +0.208%G +0.005% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.99%EV +6.13%E +0.713%K +0.807%G +0.049% | 5.8% | 2026-05-14 17:51 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -11.80%E -10.63%K -107.25%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV +6.57%E +0.505%K +0.547%G +0.036% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV +4.90%E +0.576%K +0.653%G +0.032% | 9.5% | 2026-05-14 17:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -9.83%E -0.894%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -1.27%E -0.159%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-14 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -9.83%E -0.894%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -1.27%E -0.159%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-14 17:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.42%EV -10.21%E -9.03%K -78.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV +6.57%E +0.505%K +0.547%G +0.036% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -1.27%E -0.159%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-14 17:31 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.36%EV -12.59%E -11.45%K -125.92%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -1.27%E -0.159%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-14 17:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.70%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -7.44%E -0.993%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.06%EV -9.41%E -8.26%K -67.24%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.77%EV -3.68%E -0.313%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -7.44%E -0.993%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-14 17:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.76%EV -11.80%E -10.63%K -107.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.43%EV -13.93%E -1.33%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.80%EV -7.44%E -0.993%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-14 17:46 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -22.12%E -2.33%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.40%EV -10.53%E -1.45%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.35%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:21 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.35%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -9.83%E -0.894%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 17:41 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-14 17:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.17%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.17%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.17%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.32%EV -9.41%E -8.26%K -67.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-14 17:21 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.17%EV -9.41%E -8.26%K -67.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.91%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 12.92%EV -14.85%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.41%EV -11.00%E -9.82%K -91.69%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%EV -16.70%E -2.47%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.41%EV -11.00%E -9.82%K -91.69%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%EV -16.70%E -2.47%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -10.21%E -9.03%K -78.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV +6.57%E +0.505%K +0.547%G +0.036% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -19.79%E -3.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-14 17:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 78.91%EV -11.80%E -10.63%K -107.25%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.62%EV -5.73%E -0.498%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.48%EV -19.79%E -3.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-05-14 17:21 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.49% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.54% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97% | 0.3% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.36% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.69% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95% | 0.5% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.91% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.19% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90% | 1.0% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.36% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.86% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.78% | 2.0% | 2026-05-14 17:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.51% | 14.99I 6.67%NM 6.52% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.97% | 2.3% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |