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Al-Qadsiah v Al-Hazem
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Al-Qadsiah (Local)
Predicción 79.46%1.26momio equitativo
EV -4.65%
Ventaja -3.87%
Kelly -23.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
78.14%79.52%79.68%82.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.101.151.151.2090.91%87.08%86.96%83.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Al-Hazem (Visitante)
Predicción 8.20%12.20momio equitativo
EV +9.03%
Ventaja +0.679%
Kelly +0.734%
Crecimiento +0.066%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 13.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.89%8.21%7.83%9.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
9.5011.6112.0013.3010.53%8.61%8.33%7.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 12.34%8.10momio equitativo
EV +11.56%
Ventaja +1.28%
Kelly +1.44%
Crecimiento +0.166%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.04
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.71%12.27%12.49%13.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.507.307.009.0415.38%13.70%14.29%11.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 79.46%; Al-Hazem (Visitante): 8.20%; Empate: 12.34%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.10. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 9.04, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +11.56%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.02%EV -6.23%E -5.28%K -34.64%G +0.000% | 13.30I 7.52%NM 7.28%EV +9.03%E +0.679%K +0.734%G +0.066% | 9.04I 11.06%NM 10.71%EV +11.56%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.166% | 3.3% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.45%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.49I 8.01%NM 7.56%EV +2.39%E +0.191%K +0.208%G +0.005% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.99%EV +6.13%E +0.713%K +0.807%G +0.049% | 5.8% | 2026-05-14 17:51 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -11.80%E -10.63%K -107.25%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV +6.57%E +0.505%K +0.547%G +0.036% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV +4.90%E +0.576%K +0.653%G +0.032% | 9.5% | 2026-05-14 17:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -9.83%E -0.894%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -1.27%E -0.159%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-14 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -9.83%E -0.894%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -1.27%E -0.159%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-14 17:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.42%EV -10.21%E -9.03%K -78.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV +6.57%E +0.505%K +0.547%G +0.036% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -1.27%E -0.159%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-14 17:31 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.36%EV -12.59%E -11.45%K -125.92%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -1.27%E -0.159%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-14 17:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.70%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -7.44%E -0.993%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.06%EV -9.41%E -8.26%K -67.24%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.77%EV -3.68%E -0.313%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -7.44%E -0.993%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-14 17:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.76%EV -11.80%E -10.63%K -107.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.43%EV -13.93%E -1.33%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.80%EV -7.44%E -0.993%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-14 17:46 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -22.12%E -2.33%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.40%EV -10.53%E -1.45%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.35%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:21 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.82%E -6.74%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +2.47%E +0.197%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.35%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -9.83%E -0.894%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-14 17:41 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-14 17:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.17%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.17%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.17%EV -8.62%E -7.49%K -57.46%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.32%EV -9.41%E -8.26%K -67.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -13.62%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-14 17:21 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.17%EV -9.41%E -8.26%K -67.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.91%EV -18.03%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 12.92%EV -14.85%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.41%EV -11.00%E -9.82%K -91.69%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%EV -16.70%E -2.47%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.41%EV -11.00%E -9.82%K -91.69%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -1.63%E -0.136%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%EV -16.70%E -2.47%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-14 17:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -10.21%E -9.03%K -78.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV +6.57%E +0.505%K +0.547%G +0.036% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -19.79%E -3.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-14 17:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 78.91%EV -11.80%E -10.63%K -107.25%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.62%EV -5.73%E -0.498%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.48%EV -19.79%E -3.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-05-14 17:21 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.49% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.54% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97% | 0.3% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.36% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.69% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95% | 0.5% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.91% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.19% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90% | 1.0% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.36% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.86% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.78% | 2.0% | 2026-05-14 17:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.51% | 14.99I 6.67%NM 6.52% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.97% | 2.3% | 2026-05-14 17:55 |