Language:English
Al-Okhdood v Al-Nassr
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Okhdood (Local)
Prediction 4.64%21.56fair odd
EV +15.08%
Edge +0.608%
Kelly +0.633%
Growth +0.095%
assuming max odds 24.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.83%4.70%4.57%5.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0019.4320.0024.816.67%5.15%5.00%4.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Nassr (Visit)
Prediction 86.88%1.15fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -32.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.45%87.01%87.05%89.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.1197.09%94.16%94.34%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.48%11.79fair odd
EV +38.22%
Edge +2.34%
Kelly +2.50%
Growth +0.955%
assuming max odds 16.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.95%8.29%8.38%10.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.7510.5016.3011.11%9.30%9.52%6.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Okhdood (Local): 4.64%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 86.88%; Draw: 8.48%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.79. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +38.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.22%EV +6.68%E +0.291%K +0.304%G +0.020% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.83%EV -6.17%E -5.71%K -77.10%G +0.000% | 16.30I 6.13%NM 5.95%EV +38.22%E +2.34%K +2.50%G +0.955% | 3.1% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 24.81I 4.03%NM 3.83%EV +15.08%E +0.608%K +0.633%G +0.095% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.68%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 14.66I 6.82%NM 6.48%EV +24.31%E +1.66%K +1.78%G +0.433% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.64%EV -21.15%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.37%EV -3.56%E -3.21%K -32.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.99%EV +1.76%E +0.146%K +0.160%G +0.003% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.64%EV -21.15%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.37%EV -3.56%E -3.21%K -32.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.99%EV +1.76%E +0.146%K +0.160%G +0.003% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV -2.59%E -0.123%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.91%EV -8.77%E -8.36%K -175.48%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +1.76%E +0.146%K +0.160%G +0.003% | 8.3% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -8.77%E -8.36%K -175.48%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +1.76%E +0.146%K +0.160%G +0.003% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.00%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -6.72%E -0.611%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -21.15%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.19%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -6.72%E -0.611%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.17%EV +2.05%E +0.093%K +0.097%G +0.002% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.48%EV -8.77%E -8.36%K -175.48%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -6.72%E -0.611%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -21.15%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.30%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -6.72%E -0.611%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -21.15%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.30%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -6.72%E -0.611%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -21.15%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.30%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -6.72%E -0.611%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -30.42%E -2.03%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.92%EV -9.64%E -9.27%K -241.07%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -6.72%E -0.611%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV -2.59%E -0.123%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -10.96%E -1.04%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.77%EV -8.77%E -8.36%K -175.48%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -10.96%E -1.04%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 17:57 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.27%EV -21.15%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 86.19%EV -9.64%E -9.27%K -241.07%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.54%EV -10.96%E -1.04%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -15.20%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -15.20%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -15.20%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -15.20%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -15.20%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -15.20%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.04%E -6.58%K -100.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -15.20%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -11.87%E -0.625%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.07%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -15.20%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.55%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.87%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -19.44%E -2.05%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.55%EV -7.23%E -0.362%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.87%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -19.44%E -2.05%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%EV -2.59%E -0.123%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.60%EV -7.91%E -7.46%K -131.75%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -23.68%E -2.63%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.68%EV -11.87%E -0.625%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.45%EV -9.64%E -9.27%K -241.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -23.68%E -2.63%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.68%EV -11.87%E -0.625%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.45%EV -9.64%E -9.27%K -241.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -23.68%E -2.63%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.64%EV -11.87%E -0.625%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 85.57%EV -10.51%E -10.21%K -350.39%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.79%EV -23.68%E -2.63%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.92% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.06% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 6.02% | 0.7% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 32.00I 3.13%NM 3.10% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.90% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 6.00% | 0.9% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.40% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.44% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.16% | 1.4% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 28.99I 3.45%NM 3.37% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 90.52% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.11% | 2.3% | 2026-04-11 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.74% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.69% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58% | 5.6% | 2026-04-11 18:01 |