The School of Odds
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Al-Nassr v Damac

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 18:02 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 4–1 Damac

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 81.83%1.22fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -9.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.41%81.75%82.27%84.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.111.2093.46%89.54%90.09%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Damac (Visit)

Prediction 6.53%15.31fair odd
EV +11.03%
Edge +0.649%
Kelly +0.689%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.34%6.54%6.42%9.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0014.7515.0017.0010.00%6.78%6.67%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.64%8.59fair odd
EV +12.70%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.186%

assuming max odds 9.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.00%11.70%11.31%13.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.767.509.6815.38%12.89%13.33%10.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 81.83%; Damac (Visit): 6.53%; Draw: 11.64%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.59. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 84.20%EV -5.90%E -5.13%K -39.33%G +0.000%16.70I 5.99%NM 5.80%EV +9.07%E +0.543%K +0.578%G +0.052%9.68I 10.33%NM 10.00%EV +12.70%E +1.31%K +1.46%G +0.186%3.3%2026-05-21 17:59
Pinnacle🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.10%EV -6.72%E -5.89%K -47.99%G +0.000%14.71I 6.80%NM 6.44%EV -3.93%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%9.06I 11.04%NM 10.46%EV +5.48%E +0.605%K +0.681%G +0.037%5.6%2026-05-21 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.86%EV -9.99%E -9.08%K -99.91%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV +4.79%E +0.532%K +0.598%G +0.029%9.7%2026-05-21 18:00
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -9.99%E -9.08%K -99.91%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV +4.50%E +0.281%K +0.300%G +0.013%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -1.04%E -0.122%K -0.138%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-21 17:59
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.40%EV -11.63%E -10.77%K -145.35%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -2.03%E -0.136%K -0.145%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -1.04%E -0.122%K -0.138%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-21 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.50%EV -10.81%E -9.92%K -120.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV -1.04%E -0.122%K -0.138%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-21 18:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.69%EV -9.17%E -8.26%K -83.39%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -2.03%E -0.136%K -0.145%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.19%EV -4.53%E -0.552%K -0.629%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-21 18:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.83%EV -10.81%E -9.92%K -120.11%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.02%EV -2.03%E -0.136%K -0.145%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.15%EV -5.69%E -0.703%K -0.802%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-21 18:00
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -1.81%E -1.51%K -9.04%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -28.16%E -2.56%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -6.86%E -0.857%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-21 18:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.50%EV -9.99%E -9.08%K -99.91%G +0.000%14.75I 6.78%NM 6.15%EV -3.67%E -0.249%K -0.267%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV -6.86%E -0.857%K -0.980%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 17:47
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -3.45%E -2.92%K -19.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -34.69%E -3.47%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-21 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.54%E -6.67%K -57.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -2.03%E -0.136%K -0.145%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 18:00
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.29%EV -8.35%E -7.46%K -69.62%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +11.03%E +0.649%K +0.689%G +0.076%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.29%EV -8.35%E -7.46%K -69.62%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +11.03%E +0.649%K +0.689%G +0.076%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.29%EV -8.35%E -7.46%K -69.62%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +11.03%E +0.649%K +0.689%G +0.076%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 18:00
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -6.72%E -5.89%K -47.99%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 17:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -9.17%E -8.26%K -83.39%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +11.03%E +0.649%K +0.689%G +0.076%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-21 17:54
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -9.17%E -8.26%K -83.39%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +11.03%E +0.649%K +0.689%G +0.076%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-21 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -9.17%E -8.26%K -83.39%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +11.03%E +0.649%K +0.689%G +0.076%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-21 17:54
LeoVegas🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.55%EV -9.99%E -9.08%K -99.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV +11.03%E +0.649%K +0.689%G +0.076%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-21 17:54
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.35%E -7.46%K -69.62%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-21 17:59
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.35%E -7.46%K -69.62%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-21 18:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.35%E -7.46%K -69.62%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-21 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.35%E -7.46%K -69.62%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-21 17:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.28%EV -9.99%E -9.08%K -99.91%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV +4.50%E +0.281%K +0.300%G +0.013%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-21 18:00
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.22%EV -9.99%E -9.08%K -99.91%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-21 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.54%EV -11.63%E -10.77%K -145.35%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.57%EV +4.50%E +0.281%K +0.300%G +0.013%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.89%EV -12.68%E -1.69%K -1.95%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-21 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -5.90%E -5.13%K -39.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -2.03%E -0.136%K -0.145%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -18.50%E -2.64%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-21 18:00
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96%EV -6.72%E -5.89%K -47.99%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -15.10%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -18.50%E -2.64%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 81.99%EV -12.45%E -11.63%K -177.80%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.48%EV +4.50%E +0.281%K +0.300%G +0.013%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -18.50%E -2.64%K -3.08%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-21 17:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.48%EV -9.99%E -9.08%K -99.91%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.90%EV -2.03%E -0.136%K -0.145%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.62%EV -24.32%E -3.74%K -4.42%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-21 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 85.27%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.34%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.39%0.2%2026-05-21 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.56%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.32%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.13%0.8%2026-05-21 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.90%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.05%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.05%1.5%2026-05-21 18:00
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.43%19.01I 5.26%NM 5.15%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.42%2.1%2026-05-21 18:00
Kalshi◎1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.83%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.71%3.0%2026-05-21 18:00