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Al-Nassr v Al-Najma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Nassr (Local)
Prediction 86.48%1.16fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -4.43%
Kelly -48.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.11%86.64%86.58%89.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.051.1099.01%95.14%95.24%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Najma (Visit)
Prediction 4.82%20.73fair odd
EV +30.23%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.351%
assuming max odds 27.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.55%4.89%4.55%5.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0021.9221.9127.006.67%4.56%4.56%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.69%11.50fair odd
EV +25.35%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.479%
assuming max odds 14.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.61%8.47%8.87%9.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.3211.0014.4210.53%8.83%9.09%6.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 86.48%; Al-Najma (Visit): 4.82%; Draw: 8.69%. For Al-Najma (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.73. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.03%EV -7.46%E -6.97%K -106.61%G +0.000% | 21.82I 4.58%NM 4.37%EV +5.25%E +0.240%K +0.252%G +0.013% | 14.42I 6.93%NM 6.61%EV +25.35%E +1.76%K +1.89%G +0.479% | 5.0% | 2026-04-03 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.90%EV -5.73%E -5.26%K -63.70%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.59%EV +30.23%E +1.12%K +1.16%G +0.351% | 12.90I 7.75%NM 7.51%EV +12.14%E +0.941%K +1.02%G +0.124% | 3.2% | 2026-04-03 17:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.66%EV -9.19%E -8.75%K -183.85%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV +25.41%E +0.977%K +1.02%G +0.258% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 7.4% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -10.06%E -9.67%K -251.43%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +25.41%E +0.977%K +1.02%G +0.258% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -10.06%E -9.67%K -251.43%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +25.41%E +0.977%K +1.02%G +0.258% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -10.06%E -9.67%K -251.43%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +25.41%E +0.977%K +1.02%G +0.258% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -10.06%E -9.67%K -251.43%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +25.41%E +0.977%K +1.02%G +0.258% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -10.06%E -9.67%K -251.43%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +25.41%E +0.977%K +1.02%G +0.258% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -10.06%E -9.67%K -251.43%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +25.41%E +0.977%K +1.02%G +0.258% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -10.06%E -9.67%K -251.43%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +25.41%E +0.977%K +1.02%G +0.258% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.73%EV -10.92%E -10.60%K -364.07%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.66%EV +20.58%E +0.823%K +0.858%G +0.177% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 9.4% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.73%EV -10.92%E -10.60%K -364.07%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.66%EV +20.58%E +0.823%K +0.858%G +0.177% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV +4.32%E +0.360%K +0.392%G +0.017% | 9.4% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.87%E -4.43%K -48.68%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.36%E -0.440%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.87%E -4.43%K -48.68%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.36%E -0.440%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.69%EV -7.46%E -6.97%K -106.61%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -8.36%E -0.440%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-03 17:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.79%EV -8.33%E -7.86%K -138.79%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -8.36%E -0.440%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.79%EV -8.33%E -7.86%K -138.79%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -8.36%E -0.440%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.79%EV -8.33%E -7.86%K -138.79%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -8.36%E -0.440%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.48%EV -9.19%E -8.75%K -183.85%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.17%EV +6.11%E +0.278%K +0.291%G +0.018% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-03 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.01%EV -8.33%E -7.86%K -138.79%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -22.83%E -1.43%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.29%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-03 17:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -12.65%E -12.53%K -1265.16%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV +10.94%E +0.476%K +0.497%G +0.054% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -12.65%E -12.53%K -1265.16%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV +10.94%E +0.476%K +0.497%G +0.054% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -4.38%E -0.398%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-03 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.58%EV -9.19%E -8.75%K -183.85%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.55%EV -3.53%E -0.177%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.87%EV -10.90%E -1.06%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 17:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -7.46%E -6.97%K -106.61%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +1.29%E +0.061%K +0.065%G +0.001% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.07%E -1.31%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 17:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.11%EV -9.19%E -8.75%K -183.85%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -27.65%E -1.84%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -13.07%E -1.31%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-03 17:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.11%EV -9.19%E -8.75%K -183.85%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -27.65%E -1.84%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -13.07%E -1.31%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-03 17:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 86.41%EV -10.92%E -10.60%K -364.07%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.68%EV -8.36%E -0.440%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.90%EV -13.07%E -1.31%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.78%EV -9.19%E -8.75%K -183.85%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.74%EV -8.36%E -0.440%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -17.42%E -1.83%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-03 17:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.02% | 42.00I 2.38%NM 2.36% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.00% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.84% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.00% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.84% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 90.99% | 44.05I 2.27%NM 2.23% | 14.49I 6.90%NM 6.78% | 1.8% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.38% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.86% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.76% | 3.6% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |