The School of Odds
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Al-Nassr v Al-Hilal

Kickoff: 2026-05-12 18:04 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 1–1 Al-Hilal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 42.53%2.35fair odd
EV -0.485%
Edge -0.207%
Kelly -0.362%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%42.57%42.61%43.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.142.3450.00%46.99%46.73%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hilal (Visit)

Prediction 31.93%3.13fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.31%32.01%31.82%33.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.842.853.0238.46%35.26%35.09%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.54%3.92fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.432%
Kelly -0.584%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.38%25.42%25.57%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.573.603.8531.25%28.00%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 42.53%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 31.93%; Draw: 25.54%. For Al-Nassr (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.34, with an expected value of -0.485%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.44%EV -0.485%E -0.207%K -0.362%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.76%EV -5.49%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.79%EV -3.96%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-12 17:59
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.52%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.53%EV -3.57%E -1.18%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.95%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 17:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -6.44%E -2.93%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -2.94%E -0.774%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 18:00
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -6.44%E -2.93%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -2.94%E -0.774%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 18:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -6.44%E -2.93%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -9.00%E -3.16%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 18:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.57%E -3.98%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-12 18:01
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.71%EV -8.57%E -3.98%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -4.22%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-12 17:59
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.31%EV -8.57%E -3.98%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.70%EV -8.36%E -2.91%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-12 18:01
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.57%E -3.98%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.71%E -4.76%K -6.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-12 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.57%E -3.98%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.71%E -4.76%K -6.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-12 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.57%E -3.98%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.71%E -4.76%K -6.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-12 17:59
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -8.99%E -4.20%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -6.77%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 18:01
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -8.99%E -4.20%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -6.77%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 18:01
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -8.99%E -4.20%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -6.77%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 18:01
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -8.99%E -4.20%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -6.77%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 18:01
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -8.99%E -4.20%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -6.77%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 18:01
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -8.99%E -4.20%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -7.40%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -6.77%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.01%EV -9.84%E -4.64%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.66%EV -8.04%E -2.79%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-12 18:00
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.01%EV -9.84%E -4.64%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.66%EV -8.04%E -2.79%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-12 18:01
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.96%EV -9.84%E -4.64%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -9.00%E -3.16%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.09%EV -7.28%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-12 17:58
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -10.69%E -5.09%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.04%E -2.79%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-12 18:00
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -10.69%E -5.09%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-12 18:01
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -10.69%E -5.09%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -15.71%E -4.76%K -6.83%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-12 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.06%EV -11.97%E -5.78%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.11%EV -9.33%E -2.63%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-12 18:01
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.06%EV -11.97%E -5.78%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.11%EV -9.33%E -2.63%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-12 18:01
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.90%EV -12.82%E -6.25%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -12.19%E -4.43%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -1.66%E -0.432%K -0.584%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-12 18:01
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.90%EV -12.82%E -6.25%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -12.19%E -4.43%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -1.66%E -0.432%K -0.584%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-12 18:01
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.14%EV -12.82%E -6.25%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -10.59%E -3.78%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-12 18:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.33%EV -12.82%E -6.25%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -13.79%E -5.11%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-12 17:59
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.12%EV -12.82%E -6.25%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.21%EV -16.98%E -6.53%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.67%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-12 18:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.92%EV -14.94%E -7.47%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.88%EV -16.02%E -6.09%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.20%EV -18.27%E -5.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%19.3%2026-05-12 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.96%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.89%0.3%2026-05-12 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.92%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%1.1%2026-05-12 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.92%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%1.1%2026-05-12 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.10%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.70%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.20%1.8%2026-05-12 18:00
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.54%1.9%2026-05-12 18:00