The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Nassr v Al-Fateh

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 3–0 Al-Fateh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 78.86%1.27fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -13.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.95%78.94%78.59%81.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.141.141.2394.34%87.34%87.72%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fateh (Visit)

Prediction 8.13%12.29fair odd
EV +9.32%
Edge +0.694%
Kelly +0.749%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 13.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.82%8.15%8.28%9.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.6312.0013.4410.53%8.60%8.33%7.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.01%7.69fair odd
EV +6.78%
Edge +0.826%
Kelly +0.940%
Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 8.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.51%12.92%13.14%13.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.247.478.2115.38%13.81%13.38%12.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 78.86%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 8.13%; Draw: 13.01%. For Al-Fateh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.29. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.46%EV -8.52%E -7.35%K -53.27%G +0.000%13.44I 7.44%NM 7.03%EV +9.32%E +0.694%K +0.749%G +0.070%8.21I 12.18%NM 11.51%EV +6.78%E +0.826%K +0.940%G +0.064%5.8%2026-08-15 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -10.10%E -8.86%K -72.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 17:59
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.12%EV -10.89%E -9.64%K -83.76%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.83%EV +0.797%E +0.103%K +0.118%G +0.001%9.1%2026-08-15 17:44
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -11.68%E -10.43%K -97.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:59
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -11.68%E -10.43%K -97.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -11.68%E -10.43%K -97.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -11.68%E -10.43%K -97.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -11.68%E -10.43%K -97.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.22%EV -13.25%E -12.05%K -132.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 17:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.36%EV -14.04%E -12.88%K -156.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.82%EV +5.74%E +0.442%K +0.479%G +0.027%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.82%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-15 17:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 81.56%EV -16.41%E -15.48%K -273.48%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 6.92%EV +1.68%E +0.134%K +0.146%G +0.002%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.53%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-15 17:59
1xBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 79.05%EV -3.00%E -2.44%K -13.05%G +0.000%12.30I 8.13%NM 7.90%EV +0.049%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000%7.45I 13.42%NM 13.05%EV -3.11%E -0.417%K -0.481%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-15 17:59
betfred_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -7.73%E -6.61%K -45.49%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -2.39%E -0.199%K -0.217%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -8.96%E -1.28%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 17:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -10.10%E -8.86%K -72.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -2.39%E -0.199%K -0.217%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -8.96%E -1.28%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.61%EV -12.47%E -11.23%K -113.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -2.39%E -0.199%K -0.217%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 17:50
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.61%EV -12.47%E -11.23%K -113.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -2.39%E -0.199%K -0.217%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.68%EV -12.47%E -11.23%K -113.32%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.69%EV -6.46%E -0.562%K -0.615%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -8.96%E -1.28%K -1.49%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.81%EV -9.31%E -8.10%K -62.07%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.06%EV -8.49%E -0.755%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.13%EV -10.26%E -1.49%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -7.73%E -6.61%K -45.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -10.53%E -0.957%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.96%E -1.28%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 17:55
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.74%EV -7.73%E -6.61%K -45.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -10.53%E -0.957%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -15.46%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.96%EV -9.31%E -8.10%K -62.07%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -10.53%E -0.957%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.79%EV -7.66%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -10.89%E -9.64%K -83.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.48%EV -14.59%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -8.96%E -1.28%K -1.49%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 17:44
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.46%EV -3.79%E -3.11%K -17.23%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.57%EV -18.66%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.97%EV +4.05%E +0.506%K +0.578%G +0.023%4.5%2026-08-15 17:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.84%EV -3.79%E -3.11%K -17.23%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.66%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.66%EV -2.45%E -0.327%K -0.378%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.37%EV -8.52%E -7.35%K -53.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -18.66%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.54%EV -5.71%E -0.787%K -0.913%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 17:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -6.95%E -5.89%K -38.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -18.66%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -15.46%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -6.95%E -5.89%K -38.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -18.66%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -15.46%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 17:59
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -6.95%E -5.89%K -38.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -18.66%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -15.46%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 17:59
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.56%EV -10.10%E -8.86%K -72.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -18.66%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -15.46%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.80%EV -9.31%E -8.10%K -62.07%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.42%EV -22.73%E -2.39%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -8.96%E -1.28%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.18%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.82%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.00%1.0%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.03%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.99%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.98%1.2%2026-08-15 17:55
Smarkets◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.03%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.99%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.98%1.2%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.03%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.99%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.98%1.2%2026-08-15 17:55
Kalshi◎1.18I 84.75%NM 82.48%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.81%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.71%2.7%2026-08-15 17:35