The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Nassr v Al-Ettifaq

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 18:04 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 1–0 Al-Ettifaq

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 80.46%1.24fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -4.29%
Kelly -28.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.56%80.59%80.48%84.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.121.111.1894.34%89.39%90.09%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ettifaq (Visit)

Prediction 7.60%13.15fair odd
EV +23.91%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.374%

assuming max odds 16.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.78%7.69%7.39%8.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.5213.8616.3010.00%7.40%7.22%6.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.94%8.37fair odd
EV +25.74%
Edge +2.44%
Kelly +2.70%
Growth +0.695%

assuming max odds 10.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.95%11.72%12.13%13.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.508.138.5010.5315.38%12.29%11.76%9.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 80.46%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 7.60%; Draw: 11.94%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.37. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.17%EV -9.89%E -8.83%K -82.40%G +0.000%13.71I 7.29%NM 6.88%EV +4.22%E +0.308%K +0.332%G +0.014%10.53I 9.50%NM 8.95%EV +25.74%E +2.44%K +2.70%G +0.695%6.1%2026-04-15 17:59
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.73%EV -11.50%E -10.45%K -114.98%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.58%EV +6.43%E +0.459%K +0.494%G +0.032%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV +13.44%E +1.41%K +1.58%G +0.213%8.6%2026-04-15 18:01
1xBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.54%EV -6.67%E -5.75%K -41.69%G +0.000%16.30I 6.13%NM 5.95%EV +23.91%E +1.47%K +1.56%G +0.374%9.22I 10.85%NM 10.51%EV +10.10%E +1.10%K +1.23%G +0.124%3.2%2026-04-15 17:58
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.64%EV -11.50%E -10.45%K -114.98%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV +7.47%E +0.830%K +0.934%G +0.070%8.7%2026-04-15 18:01
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.73%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -1.17%E -0.090%K -0.098%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV +7.47%E +0.830%K +0.934%G +0.070%8.9%2026-04-15 18:00
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.83%EV -5.06%E -4.29%K -28.12%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%4.8%2026-04-15 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.25%EV -5.06%E -4.29%K -28.12%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -16.38%E -1.49%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%5.6%2026-04-15 18:00
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:01
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.27%EV -12.30%E -11.29%K -136.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%10.2%2026-04-15 18:00
LeoVegas🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.27%EV -12.30%E -11.29%K -136.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%10.2%2026-04-15 18:01
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.34%EV -11.50%E -10.45%K -114.98%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.13%EV -16.38%E -1.49%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%11.8%2026-04-15 18:01
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.25%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -16.38%E -1.49%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-15 17:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.46%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -4.98%E -0.398%K -0.433%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-15 17:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.98%EV -13.91%E -13.00%K -198.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-15 18:01
Virgin Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.98%EV -13.91%E -13.00%K -198.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-15 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 82.77%EV -14.72%E -13.88%K -245.26%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.27%EV +6.43%E +0.459%K +0.494%G +0.032%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.97%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-15 18:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.85%EV -9.89%E -8.83%K -82.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.61%EV -6.86%E -0.879%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-15 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.45%EV -7.47%E -6.50%K -49.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.95%EV -12.58%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.60%EV -13.43%E -1.85%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-15 18:00
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 17:59
William Hill🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 18:01
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 17:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -11.50%E -10.45%K -114.98%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV +6.43%E +0.459%K +0.494%G +0.032%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-15 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.13%EV -7.47%E -6.50%K -49.83%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.56%EV -20.18%E -1.92%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -19.40%E -2.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-15 18:01
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.56%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -23.98%E -2.40%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -22.38%E -3.44%K -4.07%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-15 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.06%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00%1.0%2026-04-15 18:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.95%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.07%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99%1.2%2026-04-15 18:01
Kalshi◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.88%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.83%2.0%2026-04-15 18:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 84.69%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.57%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.74%2.7%2026-04-15 18:01
Smarkets◎1.14I 87.72%NM 84.52%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.84%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.64%3.8%2026-04-15 18:01