A Escola das Odds

Al-Nassr v Al-Ettifaq

Início: 2026-04-15 18:04 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 1–0 Al-Ettifaq

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

30 casas de apostas (6 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Al-Nassr (Local)

Previsão 80.46%1.24odd justa
EV -5.06%
Vantagem -4.29%
Kelly -28.12%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.18

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
77.56%80.59%80.48%84.17%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.061.121.111.1894.34%89.39%90.09%84.75%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Al-Ettifaq (Visitante)

Previsão 7.60%13.15odd justa
EV +23.91%
Vantagem +1.47%
Kelly +1.56%
Crescimento +0.374%

pressupondo odds máximas de 16.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
5.78%7.69%7.39%8.84%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
10.0013.5213.8616.3010.00%7.40%7.22%6.13%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 11.94%8.37odd justa
EV +25.74%
Vantagem +2.44%
Kelly +2.70%
Crescimento +0.695%

pressupondo odds máximas de 10.53

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
8.95%11.72%12.13%13.60%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
6.508.138.5010.5315.38%12.29%11.76%9.50%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (30 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Pinnacle1.12I 89.29%NM 84.17%EV -9.89%E -8.83%K -82.40%G +0.000%13.71I 7.29%NM 6.88%EV +4.22%E +0.308%K +0.332%G +0.014%10.53I 9.50%NM 8.95%EV +25.74%E +2.44%K +2.70%G +0.695%6.1%2026-04-15 17:59
SportsBet1.10I 90.91%NM 83.73%EV -11.50%E -10.45%K -114.98%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.58%EV +6.43%E +0.459%K +0.494%G +0.032%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV +13.44%E +1.41%K +1.58%G +0.213%8.6%2026-04-15 18:01
1xBet1.16I 86.21%NM 83.54%EV -6.67%E -5.75%K -41.69%G +0.000%16.30I 6.13%NM 5.95%EV +23.91%E +1.47%K +1.56%G +0.374%9.22I 10.85%NM 10.51%EV +10.10%E +1.10%K +1.23%G +0.124%3.2%2026-04-15 17:58
Paddy Power1.10I 90.91%NM 83.64%EV -11.50%E -10.45%K -114.98%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV +7.47%E +0.830%K +0.934%G +0.070%8.7%2026-04-15 18:01
Tipico (DE)1.11I 90.09%NM 82.73%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -1.17%E -0.090%K -0.098%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV +7.47%E +0.830%K +0.934%G +0.070%8.9%2026-04-15 18:00
Coral1.18I 84.75%NM 80.83%EV -5.06%E -4.29%K -28.12%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%4.8%2026-04-15 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 80.25%EV -5.06%E -4.29%K -28.12%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -16.38%E -1.49%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%5.6%2026-04-15 18:00
Unibet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:01
Unibet (NL)1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:01
Grosvenor1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:00
Unibet (SE)1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:00
Svenska Spel1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:01
ATG (SE)1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +21.63%E +1.35%K +1.44%G +0.312%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%8.1%2026-04-15 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.09I 91.74%NM 83.27%EV -12.30%E -11.29%K -136.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%10.2%2026-04-15 18:00
LeoVegas1.09I 91.74%NM 83.27%EV -12.30%E -11.29%K -136.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%10.2%2026-04-15 18:01
Sky Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 81.34%EV -11.50%E -10.45%K -114.98%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.13%EV -16.38%E -1.49%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV +1.50%E +0.177%K +0.200%G +0.003%11.8%2026-04-15 18:01
betfred_uk1.14I 87.72%NM 80.25%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -16.38%E -1.49%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-15 17:59
Betclic (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.46%EV -10.69%E -9.63%K -97.21%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -4.98%E -0.398%K -0.433%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-15 17:59
LiveScore Bet1.07I 93.46%NM 82.98%EV -13.91%E -13.00%K -198.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-15 18:01
Virgin Bet1.07I 93.46%NM 82.98%EV -13.91%E -13.00%K -198.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%EV +14.03%E +0.935%K +1.00%G +0.141%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-15 18:00
PMU (FR)1.06I 94.34%NM 82.77%EV -14.72%E -13.88%K -245.26%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.27%EV +6.43%E +0.459%K +0.494%G +0.032%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.97%EV -4.47%E -0.559%K -0.639%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-15 18:00
Unibet (FR)1.12I 89.29%NM 80.85%EV -9.89%E -8.83%K -82.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.61%EV -6.86%E -0.879%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-15 17:59
Winamax (DE)1.15I 86.96%NM 79.45%EV -7.47%E -6.50%K -49.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.95%EV -12.58%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.60%EV -13.43%E -1.85%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-15 18:00
888sport1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 17:59
William Hill1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 18:01
888sport (SE)1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 17:59
Mr Green (SE)1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.78%E -0.731%K -0.798%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-15 17:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -11.50%E -10.45%K -114.98%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV +6.43%E +0.459%K +0.494%G +0.032%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -16.41%E -2.34%K -2.74%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-15 18:00
Winamax (FR)1.15I 86.96%NM 78.13%EV -7.47%E -6.50%K -49.83%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.56%EV -20.18%E -1.92%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -19.40%E -2.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-15 18:01
BoyleSports1.14I 87.72%NM 77.56%EV -8.28%E -7.26%K -59.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -23.98%E -2.40%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -22.38%E -3.44%K -4.07%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-15 17:59
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.15I 86.96%NM 86.06%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00%1.0%2026-04-15 18:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.15I 86.96%NM 85.95%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.07%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99%1.2%2026-04-15 18:01
Kalshi1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.88%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.83%2.0%2026-04-15 18:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 84.69%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.57%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.74%2.7%2026-04-15 18:01
Smarkets1.14I 87.72%NM 84.52%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.84%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.64%3.8%2026-04-15 18:01