Language:English
Al-Najma v Neom
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Najma (Local)
Prediction 15.92%6.28fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -0.694%
Kelly -0.832%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.20%15.85%16.12%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.235.056.0221.28%19.13%19.80%16.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Neom (Visit)
Prediction 61.18%1.63fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.937%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.85%61.27%61.15%63.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.511.501.6169.93%66.14%66.67%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.91%4.37fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.622%
Kelly -0.813%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.37%22.88%22.73%24.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.923.904.2528.17%25.48%25.64%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Najma (Local): 15.92%; Neom (Visit): 61.18%; Draw: 22.91%. For Neom (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.61, with an expected value of -1.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.02I 16.61%NM 16.10%EV -4.18%E -0.694%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.20%EV -1.51%E -0.937%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.70%EV -6.31%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-11 15:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -4.49%E -0.749%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.02%EV -11.30%E -7.79%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -4.49%E -0.749%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -12.95%E -3.41%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.78I 17.30%NM 16.36%EV -8.00%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -2.64%E -0.622%K -0.813%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 15:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -10.86%E -1.94%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.69%EV -10.07%E -6.85%K -21.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 15:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.36%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.97%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -12.95%E -3.41%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.15%EV -11.30%E -7.79%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.73%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -15.64%E -2.95%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-11 15:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -16.43%E -3.13%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.70%EV -17.23%E -3.31%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 60.74%EV -12.52%E -8.76%K -29.12%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.56%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-04-11 16:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -18.82%E -3.69%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -1.51%E -0.937%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -18.82%E -3.69%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -1.51%E -0.937%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -18.82%E -3.69%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -1.51%E -0.937%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.92%EV -3.34%E -2.12%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.77%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -3.96%E -2.52%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-11 16:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.11%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.05%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -12.95%E -3.41%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.11%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.05%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -12.95%E -3.41%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.01%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -12.95%E -3.41%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-11 16:01 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.22%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.81%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.97%EV -14.10%E -3.76%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.22%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.81%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.97%EV -14.10%E -3.76%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.22%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.81%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.97%EV -14.10%E -3.76%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.06%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.24%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.70%EV -17.53%E -4.87%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-04-11 15:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -22.00%E -4.49%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.19%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -23.60%E -4.92%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.27%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.16%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.11%EV -25.19%E -5.36%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 57.91%EV -10.07%E -6.85%K -21.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 23.98%EV -18.68%E -5.26%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-04-11 16:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.85% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.81% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.34% | 1.7% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.80% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53% | 2.1% | 2026-04-11 16:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.59% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.94% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47% | 3.5% | 2026-04-11 16:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.12% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.76% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 12.30% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 70.94% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 16.77% | 35.5% | 2026-04-11 16:01 |