Language:English
Al-Najma v Al-Shabab
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Najma (Local)
Prediction 17.81%5.62fair odd
EV -0.991%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.217%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.70%17.71%17.74%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.115.105.5621.74%19.56%19.61%17.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Shabab (Visit)
Prediction 61.81%1.62fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -6.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.24%61.77%61.84%63.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.481.471.5669.44%67.69%68.03%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.38%4.91fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.675%
Kelly -0.855%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.90%20.52%20.42%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.294.304.7527.78%23.33%23.26%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Najma (Local): 17.81%; Al-Shabab (Visit): 61.81%; Draw: 20.38%. For Al-Najma (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.56, with an expected value of -0.991%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.44%EV -0.991%E -0.178%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.15%EV -3.57%E -2.29%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.41%EV -3.21%E -0.675%K -0.855%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-20 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -2.06%E -0.374%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -10.37%E -7.15%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.46I 18.32%NM 17.35%EV -2.77%E -0.508%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.32%EV -6.04%E -3.97%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 4.66I 21.46%NM 20.33%EV -5.04%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-20 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -5.62%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.28%EV -7.28%E -4.85%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -5.62%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.28%EV -7.28%E -4.85%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -5.62%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.28%EV -7.28%E -4.85%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -6.51%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -5.42%E -3.54%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -6.51%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -5.42%E -3.54%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -6.51%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.18%EV -7.90%E -5.30%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.45%EV -13.39%E -3.15%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -7.40%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.77%EV -6.66%E -4.41%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -13.39%E -3.15%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-20 17:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -7.40%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.77%EV -6.66%E -4.41%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -13.39%E -3.15%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-20 17:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -7.40%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.77%EV -6.66%E -4.41%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -13.39%E -3.15%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-20 17:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.53%EV -7.40%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.28%E -4.85%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -14.41%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-20 17:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -9.18%E -1.80%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.92%EV -9.13%E -6.21%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-20 17:57 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -9.18%E -1.80%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.37%EV -10.37%E -7.15%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -14.41%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -9.18%E -1.80%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.37%EV -10.37%E -7.15%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -14.41%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -7.28%E -4.85%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-20 17:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -7.28%E -4.85%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -11.76%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-20 17:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.28%E -4.85%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -14.41%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -11.76%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.00%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -16.45%E -4.01%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-20 17:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.49%E -4.62%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-20 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.49%E -4.62%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.49%E -4.62%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-20 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.49%E -4.62%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-20 17:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.06%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.24%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.70%EV -26.64%E -7.40%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.24%EV -12.74%E -2.60%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.21%EV -9.75%E -6.68%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.55%EV -11.36%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-20 17:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -15.41%E -3.25%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.14%EV -10.99%E -7.63%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.33%EV -11.76%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.87%EV -18.09%E -3.93%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 59.44%EV -9.75%E -6.68%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.70%EV -18.49%E -4.62%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.65% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40% | 1.1% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.04% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01% | 1.1% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.80% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.31% | 1.5% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.54% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.00% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46% | 2.8% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.76% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.11% | 4.7% | 2026-05-20 18:00 |