Language:English
Al-Najma v Al-Nassr
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Najma (Local)
Prediction 6.53%15.32fair odd
EV +27.92%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.419%
assuming max odds 19.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.93%6.46%6.37%7.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5014.4715.0019.608.00%6.91%6.67%5.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Nassr (Visit)
Prediction 83.00%1.20fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -3.96%
Kelly -30.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.75%83.26%83.03%86.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.101.111.1593.46%90.80%90.09%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 10.48%9.54fair odd
EV +17.87%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.311%
assuming max odds 11.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.43%10.28%10.60%11.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.768.5011.2513.33%11.42%11.76%8.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Najma (Local): 6.53%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 83.00%; Draw: 10.48%. For Al-Najma (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.32. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 19.60I 5.10%NM 4.93%EV +27.92%E +1.42%K +1.50%G +0.419% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.28%EV -7.04%E -6.29%K -58.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +15.25%E +1.39%K +1.52%G +0.232% | 3.5% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV +10.95%E +0.644%K +0.684%G +0.075% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -9.53%E -8.75%K -105.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -5.71%E -0.634%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40%EV +10.95%E +0.644%K +0.684%G +0.075% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.95%EV -10.36%E -9.60%K -129.55%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -0.469%E -0.049%K -0.055%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-25 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 15.41I 6.49%NM 6.15%EV +0.572%E +0.037%K +0.040%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.42%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.43%EV +17.87%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.311% | 5.5% | 2026-02-25 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.89%EV -7.04%E -6.29%K -58.70%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-25 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-25 13:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-25 13:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-25 13:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-25 13:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-25 13:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-25 13:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.70%E -7.91%K -87.04%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-25 18:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.70%E -7.91%K -87.04%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-25 18:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.02%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 84.46%EV -11.19%E -10.46%K -159.91%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -0.469%E -0.049%K -0.055%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-25 18:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%EV -2.10%E -0.140%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.24%EV -10.36%E -9.60%K -129.55%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -21.42%E -2.86%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-25 18:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -8.63%E -0.616%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.50%EV -10.36%E -9.60%K -129.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -16.18%E -2.02%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-25 18:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -8.63%E -0.616%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.50%EV -10.36%E -9.60%K -129.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -16.18%E -2.02%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-25 18:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -8.63%E -0.616%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.50%EV -10.36%E -9.60%K -129.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -16.18%E -2.02%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-25 18:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.75%EV -11.89%E -0.881%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 83.65%EV -9.53%E -8.75%K -105.93%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -0.469%E -0.049%K -0.055%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-25 18:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.60%EV -11.89%E -0.881%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 81.75%EV -9.53%E -8.75%K -105.93%G +0.000% | 7.65I 13.07%NM 11.65%EV -19.85%E -2.59%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-25 18:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.31%EV -15.16%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.68%EV -4.55%E -3.96%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.01%EV -0.469%E -0.049%K -0.055%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-25 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -15.16%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.22%EV -4.55%E -3.96%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV -5.71%E -0.634%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-25 18:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -15.16%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -15.16%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -15.16%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -15.16%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -7.87%E -7.09%K -71.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -15.16%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 82.50%EV -9.53%E -8.75%K -105.93%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -15.16%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.64%EV -10.36%E -9.60%K -129.55%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV -10.95%E -1.29%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-25 18:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.16%EV -18.42%E -1.47%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.89%EV -10.36%E -9.60%K -129.55%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -5.71%E -0.634%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-02-25 18:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.11% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.31% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 1.4% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.11% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.31% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 1.4% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.11% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.31% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 1.4% | 2026-02-25 18:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 21.98I 4.55%NM 4.45% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.64% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.90% | 2.1% | 2026-02-25 18:55 |