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Al-Khaleej v Al-Nassr
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Khaleej (Local)
Prediction 13.32%7.51fair odd
EV +5.08%
Edge +0.644%
Kelly +0.738%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 7.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.45%13.46%13.42%14.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.037.007.8916.67%14.22%14.29%12.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Nassr (Visit)
Prediction 68.79%1.45fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -9.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.42%68.79%68.43%71.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.321.4080.00%76.20%75.76%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.89%5.59fair odd
EV +3.78%
Edge +0.651%
Kelly +0.787%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.27%17.74%18.15%19.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.065.105.8023.09%19.75%19.61%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Khaleej (Local): 13.32%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 68.79%; Draw: 17.89%. For Al-Khaleej (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.89I 12.67%NM 12.29%EV +5.08%E +0.644%K +0.738%G +0.038% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.27%EV -3.70%E -2.64%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.44%EV -5.88%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-14 18:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.69%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -8.75%E -1.72%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.69%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -8.75%E -1.72%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.69%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -8.75%E -1.72%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.69%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -8.75%E -1.72%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.69%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -8.75%E -1.72%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.69%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -8.75%E -1.72%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -10.57%E -8.13%K -35.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -10.54%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -10.57%E -8.13%K -35.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -10.54%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -14.01%E -11.21%K -56.06%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -1.59%E -0.289%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -14.01%E -11.21%K -56.06%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -1.59%E -0.289%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.45%EV -0.110%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 68.71%EV -14.01%E -11.21%K -56.06%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.84%EV -22.52%E -5.20%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.76%EV -1.44%E -0.195%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.97%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +3.78%E +0.651%K +0.787%G +0.030% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 18:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.74%EV -4.11%E -0.570%K -0.662%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.58%EV -10.57%E -8.13%K -35.25%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -1.59%E -0.289%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.77%E -0.967%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.45%E -4.74%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -1.59%E -0.289%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.77%E -0.967%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.45%E -4.74%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -1.59%E -0.289%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -6.77%E -0.967%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -5.76%E -4.20%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -10.54%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -6.77%E -0.967%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.25%EV -9.89%E -7.55%K -31.89%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.79%EV -8.75%E -1.72%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -6.77%E -0.967%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.25%EV -11.95%E -9.34%K -42.68%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -12.33%E -2.52%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -6.77%E -0.967%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.25%EV -11.95%E -9.34%K -42.68%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -12.33%E -2.52%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -6.77%E -0.967%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -14.01%E -11.21%K -56.06%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.81%EV -6.06%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.71%EV -12.10%E -1.83%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.55%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.74%EV -8.75%E -1.72%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-14 18:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -17.69%E -3.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.47%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.89%EV -11.26%E -8.73%K -38.84%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.63%EV -15.90%E -3.38%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.07%EV -15.43%E -2.43%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.69%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.75%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.24%EV -12.33%E -2.52%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -20.09%E -3.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.72%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.49%EV -14.12%E -2.94%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-14 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -20.09%E -3.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.72%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.49%EV -14.12%E -2.94%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-14 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -20.09%E -3.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.72%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.49%EV -14.12%E -2.94%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-14 18:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.39%EV -20.09%E -3.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 66.42%EV -10.57%E -8.13%K -35.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.19%EV -19.48%E -4.33%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.80% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.80% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.87% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.31% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.82% | 1.2% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.13% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.08% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79% | 2.1% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.53% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.60% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 19:00 |