Language:English
Al-Ittihad v Al-Kholood
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad (Local)
Prediction 53.84%1.86fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.34%53.87%53.73%58.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.641.621.8066.23%61.07%61.73%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Kholood (Visit)
Prediction 21.89%4.57fair odd
EV +3.98%
Edge +0.837%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.042%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.14%21.90%21.95%22.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.364.374.7525.97%22.96%22.91%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.27%4.12fair odd
EV -0.485%
Edge -0.118%
Kelly -0.157%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.35%24.23%24.32%25.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.843.904.1028.57%26.03%25.64%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ittihad (Local): 53.84%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 21.89%; Draw: 24.27%. For Al-Kholood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.57. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.21%EV -14.94%E -9.45%K -25.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV +3.98%E +0.837%K +1.06%G +0.042% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -0.485%E -0.118%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -15.47%E -9.86%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV +3.98%E +0.837%K +1.06%G +0.042% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -0.485%E -0.118%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -15.47%E -9.86%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV +3.98%E +0.837%K +1.06%G +0.042% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -0.485%E -0.118%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -15.47%E -9.86%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV +3.98%E +0.837%K +1.06%G +0.042% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -0.485%E -0.118%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -15.47%E -9.86%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV +3.98%E +0.837%K +1.06%G +0.042% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -0.485%E -0.118%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -15.47%E -9.86%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV +3.98%E +0.837%K +1.06%G +0.042% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -0.485%E -0.118%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.07%EV -16.01%E -10.26%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.28%EV +2.88%E +0.613%K +0.779%G +0.022% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -2.91%E -0.728%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.07%EV -16.01%E -10.26%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.28%EV +2.88%E +0.613%K +0.779%G +0.022% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -2.91%E -0.728%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.14%EV -17.63%E -11.52%K -33.26%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV +0.693%E +0.151%K +0.192%G +0.001% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.52%EV -4.13%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.14%EV -17.63%E -11.52%K -33.26%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV +0.693%E +0.151%K +0.192%G +0.001% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.52%EV -4.13%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.29%EV -18.70%E -12.39%K -36.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV +0.693%E +0.151%K +0.192%G +0.001% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.57%EV -5.34%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -13.32%E -8.27%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -1.50%E -0.332%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -5.34%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.04%EV -7.40%E -4.30%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.47I 22.37%NM 21.18%EV -2.15%E -0.482%K -0.620%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.78%EV -3.40%E -0.854%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-04 17:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.87%EV -3.09%E -1.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.43I 22.57%NM 21.89%EV -3.03%E -0.684%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -2.91%E -0.728%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-04 17:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -12.78%E -7.89%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -3.68%E -0.837%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -7.77%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.97%EV -5.78%E -3.30%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -5.22%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.34%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -11.17%E -6.77%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -5.87%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -2.91%E -0.728%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.78%E -3.30%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.34%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -6.86%E -3.97%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.77%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 17:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -8.47%E -4.99%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.98%E -2.39%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-04 17:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -12.78%E -7.89%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -8.06%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -8.98%E -2.39%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -8.47%E -4.99%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.25%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -10.19%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -8.47%E -4.99%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.05%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -8.47%E -4.99%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.05%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -8.47%E -4.99%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.05%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -8.47%E -4.99%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.05%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 17:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.91%EV -12.78%E -7.89%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -12.44%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.26%EV -12.62%E -3.51%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-04 17:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.70%EV -9.55%E -5.69%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.70%EV -14.63%E -3.75%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -12.62%E -3.51%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 53.46%EV -12.24%E -7.51%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -14.63%E -3.75%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.20%EV -12.62%E -3.51%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-04 17:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.27%EV -12.78%E -7.89%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.42%EV -15.72%E -4.08%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.31%EV -13.83%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.86% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25% | 0.6% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.39% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.83% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.78% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.40% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 1.4% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.40% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 1.4% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.40% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10% | 3.7% | 2026-05-04 18:00 |