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Al-Hilal v Al-Taawoun
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Hilal (Local)
Prediction 70.38%1.42fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -9.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.52%70.52%69.52%73.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.271.261.3783.33%78.55%79.37%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Taawoun (Visit)
Prediction 11.33%8.83fair odd
EV +13.31%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.197%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.22%11.38%11.58%13.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.548.5010.0014.81%11.71%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.29%5.47fair odd
EV +5.91%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.073%
assuming max odds 5.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.15%18.10%18.90%19.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.145.205.7922.22%19.47%19.23%17.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 70.38%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 11.33%; Draw: 18.29%. For Al-Taawoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.83. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.31%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.72%EV -12.03%E -9.62%K -48.11%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV +13.31%E +1.33%K +1.48%G +0.197% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -1.22%E -0.227%K -0.278%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 17:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.72%EV -12.03%E -9.62%K -48.11%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV +13.31%E +1.33%K +1.48%G +0.197% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -1.22%E -0.227%K -0.278%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 17:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.95%EV -9.92%E -7.75%K -35.42%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.71%EV +10.48%E +1.07%K +1.20%G +0.125% | 5.79I 17.27%NM 16.35%EV +5.91%E +1.02%K +1.23%G +0.073% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 17:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.61%EV -4.99%E -3.70%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 9.53I 10.49%NM 10.14%EV +7.98%E +0.838%K +0.936%G +0.075% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.24%EV -3.05%E -0.576%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-04 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -11.32%E -8.99%K -43.56%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -1.22%E -0.227%K -0.278%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -11.32%E -8.99%K -43.56%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -1.22%E -0.227%K -0.278%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -11.32%E -8.99%K -43.56%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -1.22%E -0.227%K -0.278%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -11.32%E -8.99%K -43.56%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -1.22%E -0.227%K -0.278%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.29%EV -12.73%E -10.27%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -3.05%E -0.576%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.29%EV -12.73%E -10.27%K -53.05%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -3.05%E -0.576%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-04 17:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.37%EV -14.14%E -11.59%K -64.27%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.42%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.21%EV -4.88%E -0.939%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.53%EV -14.84%E -12.27%K -70.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -4.88%E -0.939%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.44%EV -15.55%E -12.96%K -77.74%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV +7.64%E +0.805%K +0.899%G +0.069% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.28%EV -6.71%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-04 17:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -12.03%E -9.62%K -48.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +1.98%E +0.220%K +0.247%G +0.005% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV +4.26%E +0.748%K +0.907%G +0.039% | 8.7% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -12.03%E -9.62%K -48.11%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -3.69%E -0.434%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV +0.605%E +0.110%K +0.134%G +0.001% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.07%EV -14.14%E -11.59%K -64.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.34%EV -3.69%E -0.434%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -8.54%E -1.71%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.69%EV -14.14%E -11.59%K -64.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.15%EV -3.69%E -0.434%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.16%EV -17.69%E -3.93%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-04-04 17:51 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -12.03%E -9.62%K -48.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -9.35%E -1.17%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -8.54%E -1.71%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 69.73%EV -10.62%E -8.36%K -39.34%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.43%EV -12.18%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.84%EV -14.03%E -2.98%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -8.51%E -6.55%K -28.37%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -15.02%E -2.00%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -13.11%E -2.76%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-04 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -8.51%E -6.55%K -28.37%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -15.02%E -2.00%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -13.11%E -2.76%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-04 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -8.51%E -6.55%K -28.37%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -15.02%E -2.00%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -13.11%E -2.76%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-04 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.51%E -6.55%K -28.37%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -15.02%E -2.00%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -15.86%E -3.45%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 69.18%EV -10.62%E -8.36%K -39.34%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.72%EV -15.02%E -2.00%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.10%EV -15.86%E -3.45%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.70%EV -9.21%E -7.14%K -31.77%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.32%EV -17.28%E -2.37%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -8.54%E -1.71%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-04 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.29%E -3.15%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -20.68%E -2.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -3.97%E -0.756%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.29%E -3.15%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -20.68%E -2.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -3.97%E -0.756%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -3.58%E -2.62%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -20.68%E -2.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -12.20%E -2.54%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.83%EV -6.40%E -4.81%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.56%EV -23.52%E -3.48%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.61%EV -4.88%E -0.939%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-04 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.56% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.8% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.56% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.8% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.31% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.81% | 1.2% | 2026-04-04 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.70% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.39% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.90% | 1.4% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.40% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.02% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.58% | 4.0% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |