The School of Odds
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Al-Hilal v Al-Kholood

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hilal (Local)

Prediction 83.83%1.19fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -3.89%
Kelly -31.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.28%83.94%83.50%88.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.091.081.1495.24%92.05%92.17%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Kholood (Visit)

Prediction 6.10%16.40fair odd
EV +34.14%
Edge +1.55%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.555%

assuming max odds 22.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.26%6.12%6.10%7.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5016.0516.0022.008.00%6.23%6.25%4.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.07%9.93fair odd
EV +29.93%
Edge +2.32%
Kelly +2.52%
Growth +0.753%

assuming max odds 12.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.27%9.95%10.40%11.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.289.0012.9012.50%10.77%11.11%7.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 83.83%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 6.10%; Draw: 10.07%. For Al-Kholood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.40. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 22.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.47%EV -11.14%E -10.51%K -185.66%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.26%EV +34.14%E +1.55%K +1.63%G +0.555%12.90I 7.75%NM 7.27%EV +29.93%E +2.32%K +2.52%G +0.753%6.6%2026-04-08 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.65%EV -6.95%E -6.26%K -63.17%G +0.000%15.61I 6.41%NM 6.09%EV -4.82%E -0.309%K -0.330%G +0.000%11.51I 8.69%NM 8.26%EV +15.93%E +1.38%K +1.52%G +0.242%5.2%2026-04-08 17:45
SportsBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.56%EV -10.30%E -9.63%K -147.16%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.72%EV -2.44%E -0.153%K -0.163%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV +5.76%E +0.548%K +0.606%G +0.035%9.2%2026-04-08 17:29
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.43%E -3.89%K -31.67%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.39%EV -8.54%E -0.569%K -0.610%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +0.723%E +0.072%K +0.080%G +0.001%4.4%2026-04-08 17:45
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.36%EV -9.46%E -8.76%K -118.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV +0.723%E +0.072%K +0.080%G +0.001%8.5%2026-04-08 17:55
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.36%EV -9.46%E -8.76%K -118.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV +0.723%E +0.072%K +0.080%G +0.001%8.5%2026-04-08 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.36%EV -9.46%E -8.76%K -118.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV +0.723%E +0.072%K +0.080%G +0.001%8.5%2026-04-08 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.36%EV -9.46%E -8.76%K -118.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV +0.723%E +0.072%K +0.080%G +0.001%8.5%2026-04-08 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -10.30%E -9.63%K -147.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -8.54%E -0.569%K -0.610%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV +0.723%E +0.072%K +0.080%G +0.001%10.1%2026-04-08 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.61%EV -4.43%E -3.89%K -31.67%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.35%EV -8.54%E -0.569%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.03%EV -4.31%E -0.454%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-08 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.20%EV -9.46%E -8.76%K -118.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.11%EV +9.75%E +0.542%K +0.574%G +0.056%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV -4.31%E -0.454%K -0.507%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 17:49
Grosvenor🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -9.35%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -9.35%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -9.35%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -9.35%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -9.35%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 17:55
Unibet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.09%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV -2.44%E -0.153%K -0.163%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -9.35%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-08 17:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.86%EV -7.79%E -7.08%K -77.87%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -20.73%E -1.59%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.35%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 17:15
Sky Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.25%EV -10.30%E -9.63%K -147.16%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -20.73%E -1.59%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.90%EV -9.35%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-08 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.35%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.27%EV -11.59%E -0.799%K -0.858%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.38%EV -11.87%E -1.36%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-08 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.21%EV -6.11%E -5.46%K -50.92%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -2.44%E -0.153%K -0.163%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -14.39%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 17:20
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -9.46%E -8.76%K -118.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -14.39%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-08 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -9.46%E -8.76%K -118.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -14.39%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-08 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.50%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -20.73%E -1.59%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV -14.39%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-08 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.28%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.17%EV -23.78%E -1.90%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -14.39%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-08 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.97%EV -11.14%E -10.51%K -185.66%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.56%EV -2.44%E -0.153%K -0.163%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.47%EV -14.39%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-08 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.97%EV -11.14%E -10.51%K -185.66%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.56%EV -2.44%E -0.153%K -0.163%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.47%EV -14.39%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-08 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.06%EV -8.62%E -7.91%K -95.83%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV -8.54%E -0.569%K -0.610%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 10.91%EV -16.40%E -1.98%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-08 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.44%EV -9.46%E -8.76%K -118.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV +3.65%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.008%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -19.42%E -2.43%K -2.77%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-08 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 83.55%EV -11.98%E -11.41%K -239.56%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.48%EV -2.44%E -0.153%K -0.163%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.97%EV -19.42%E -2.43%K -2.77%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-08 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 88.06%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%0.5%2026-04-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 88.06%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%0.5%2026-04-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 88.06%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%0.5%2026-04-08 17:55
Smarkets◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.00%23.98I 4.17%NM 4.11%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89%1.5%2026-04-08 17:45
Kalshi◎1.12I 89.29%NM 86.44%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.84%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.71%3.3%2026-04-08 17:20