Language:English
Al-Hilal v Al-Ahli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Hilal (Local)
Prediction 59.67%1.68fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -7.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.54%59.81%59.24%62.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.511.501.6070.42%66.37%66.67%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Ahli (Visit)
Prediction 18.41%5.43fair odd
EV +3.65%
Edge +0.649%
Kelly +0.789%
Growth +0.029%
assuming max odds 5.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.69%18.34%18.66%19.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.015.005.6322.22%19.97%20.00%17.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.92%4.56fair odd
EV +0.816%
Edge +0.177%
Kelly +0.227%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.77%21.85%22.10%22.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.144.104.6025.64%24.18%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 59.67%; Al-Ahli (Visit): 18.41%; Draw: 21.92%. For Al-Ahli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.04%EV -7.51%E -4.84%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 5.63I 17.76%NM 16.80%EV +3.65%E +0.649%K +0.789%G +0.029% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.16%EV -6.42%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -12.28%E -8.35%K -26.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV +1.26%E +0.229%K +0.280%G +0.004% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.57%E -0.811%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.89%EV -5.12%E -3.22%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.36I 18.66%NM 18.06%EV -1.32%E -0.246%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%EV +0.816%E +0.177%K +0.227%G +0.002% | 3.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -9.89%E -6.55%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -3.34%E -0.637%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -6.86%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -3.34%E -0.637%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.40%EV -12.28%E -8.35%K -26.13%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.41%EV -6.11%E -1.20%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -4.52%E -2.83%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -3.57%E -0.811%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -3.57%E -0.811%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -4.66%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.70%E -5.69%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-01 17:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.51%EV -13.47%E -9.29%K -29.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.51%EV -13.47%E -9.29%K -29.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.80%EV -7.51%E -4.84%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.41%EV -8.87%E -1.79%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 60.46%EV -15.26%E -10.75%K -36.34%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.52%EV -9.79%E -2.00%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.01%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.63%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-01 17:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -11.63%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-01 17:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -14.07%E -9.77%K -31.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -11.63%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -12.55%E -2.64%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -12.55%E -2.64%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -12.55%E -2.64%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.35%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.31%E -3.33%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.77%EV -3.57%E -0.811%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.83%EV -9.30%E -6.12%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -17.15%E -3.81%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.54%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -17.15%E -3.81%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.29% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.29% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.44% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.06% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 17:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.26% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.30% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44% | 1.4% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |