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Al-Hilal v Al-Ahli
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Al-Hilal (Local)
Predicción 59.67%1.68momio equitativo
EV -4.52%
Ventaja -2.83%
Kelly -7.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.54%59.81%59.24%62.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.421.511.501.6070.42%66.37%66.67%62.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Al-Ahli (Visitante)
Predicción 18.41%5.43momio equitativo
EV +3.65%
Ventaja +0.649%
Kelly +0.789%
Crecimiento +0.029%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.63
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.69%18.34%18.66%19.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.505.015.005.6322.22%19.97%20.00%17.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 21.92%4.56momio equitativo
EV +0.816%
Ventaja +0.177%
Kelly +0.227%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.77%21.85%22.10%22.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.144.104.6025.64%24.18%24.39%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Al-Hilal (Local): 59.67%; Al-Ahli (Visitante): 18.41%; Empate: 21.92%. Para Al-Ahli (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.43. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.63, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.65%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (30 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.04%EV -7.51%E -4.84%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 5.63I 17.76%NM 16.80%EV +3.65%E +0.649%K +0.789%G +0.029% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.16%EV -6.42%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -12.28%E -8.35%K -26.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV +1.26%E +0.229%K +0.280%G +0.004% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.57%E -0.811%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.89%EV -5.12%E -3.22%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.36I 18.66%NM 18.06%EV -1.32%E -0.246%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%EV +0.816%E +0.177%K +0.227%G +0.002% | 3.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -9.89%E -6.55%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -3.34%E -0.637%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -6.86%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -3.34%E -0.637%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.45%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -4.27%E -0.820%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.40%EV -12.28%E -8.35%K -26.13%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.41%EV -6.11%E -1.20%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -4.52%E -2.83%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -3.57%E -0.811%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -3.57%E -0.811%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -4.66%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.70%E -5.69%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-01 17:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.51%EV -13.47%E -9.29%K -29.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.51%EV -13.47%E -9.29%K -29.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -7.95%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.80%EV -7.51%E -4.84%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.41%EV -8.87%E -1.79%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 60.46%EV -15.26%E -10.75%K -36.34%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.52%EV -9.79%E -2.00%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.01%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.63%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-01 17:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -11.63%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-01 17:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -14.07%E -9.77%K -31.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -11.63%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -12.55%E -2.64%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -12.55%E -2.64%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -12.55%E -2.64%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -14.53%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.35%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.31%E -3.33%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.77%EV -3.57%E -0.811%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.83%EV -9.30%E -6.12%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -17.15%E -3.81%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -7.95%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.54%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -17.15%E -3.81%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-01 17:59 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.29% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.29% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.44% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.06% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 17:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.26% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.30% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44% | 1.4% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |