Language:English
Al-Fayha v Al-Qadsiah
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Fayha (Local)
Prediction 12.29%8.14fair odd
EV +5.66%
Edge +0.658%
Kelly +0.745%
Growth +0.042%
assuming max odds 8.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.01%12.31%12.43%13.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.297.508.6015.38%13.71%13.33%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Qadsiah (Visit)
Prediction 70.53%1.42fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.902%
Kelly -3.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.47%70.46%70.65%72.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.311.301.4080.65%76.56%76.92%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.19%5.82fair odd
EV +5.53%
Edge +0.900%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 6.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.79%17.23%16.93%20.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.105.006.1423.09%19.59%20.00%16.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fayha (Local): 12.29%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 70.53%; Draw: 17.19%. For Al-Fayha (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.66%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.19I 12.21%NM 11.84%EV +0.625%E +0.076%K +0.087%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.37%EV -5.49%E -4.10%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 6.14I 16.29%NM 15.79%EV +5.53%E +0.900%K +1.08%G +0.059% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.01%EV +5.66%E +0.658%K +0.745%G +0.042% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.31%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 5.68I 17.61%NM 16.68%EV -2.38%E -0.419%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -5.47%E -0.995%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -8.31%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -5.47%E -0.995%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -1.71%E -0.214%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.96%EV -10.43%E -8.21%K -38.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -5.47%E -0.995%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -1.71%E -0.214%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -11.84%E -9.47%K -47.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -5.47%E -0.995%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -10.92%E -1.51%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.58%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -7.19%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -1.26%E -0.902%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -8.91%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -20.14%E -3.10%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.35%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.88%EV -8.91%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -9.77%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -14.00%E -2.00%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -9.77%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -14.00%E -2.00%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.84%E -9.47%K -47.36%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.81%EV -9.77%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -14.00%E -2.00%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -5.49%E -4.10%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -14.00%E -2.00%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -5.49%E -4.10%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -1.71%E -0.214%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -10.92%E -1.51%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.48%EV -8.31%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -14.00%E -2.00%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -20.14%E -3.10%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -20.14%E -3.10%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -20.14%E -3.10%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -14.07%E -2.81%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -15.79%E -3.22%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -15.79%E -3.22%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -15.79%E -3.22%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -15.79%E -3.22%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.16%EV -18.91%E -2.87%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 68.93%EV -11.14%E -8.84%K -42.83%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 17.91%EV -16.64%E -3.43%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -6.90%E -5.23%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -17.50%E -3.65%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -14.00%E -2.00%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.86%EV -5.49%E -4.10%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -18.36%E -3.87%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -7.85%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -18.36%E -3.87%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.64%EV -17.07%E -2.53%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 68.81%EV -12.55%E -10.12%K -52.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.55%EV -20.94%E -4.55%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.43%EV -14.00%E -2.00%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.47%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.10%EV -25.58%E -5.91%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-09 17:57 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.13% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.52% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.49% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.11% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.40% | 1.5% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.49% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.11% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.40% | 1.5% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.76% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.57% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67% | 2.1% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.73% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.70% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.57% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 18:00 |