Language:English
Al-Fateh v Neom
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Fateh (Local)
Prediction 26.64%3.75fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -0.912%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.52%26.61%26.69%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.403.453.6332.26%29.44%28.99%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Neom (Visit)
Prediction 48.83%2.05fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.84%48.84%48.74%50.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.881.871.9856.18%53.33%53.48%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.54%4.08fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.402%
Kelly -0.536%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.70%24.55%24.58%26.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.633.654.0131.25%27.52%27.40%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 26.64%; Neom (Visit): 48.83%; Draw: 24.54%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.01, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.75%EV -3.31%E -0.912%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.04%EV -3.32%E -1.68%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.21%EV -1.61%E -0.402%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.99%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 15:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -9.22%E -2.49%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.58%EV -4.64%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.31%EV -3.81%E -1.93%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.11%EV -7.01%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 15:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.77%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.23%E -3.80%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -11.67%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -6.77%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -8.69%E -4.65%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.67%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -6.77%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.03%EV -11.13%E -6.12%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.23%E -3.80%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 15:06 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:21 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.20%E -4.36%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -11.67%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 15:21 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.20%E -4.36%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -11.67%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -10.77%E -3.21%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.06%EV -9.18%E -4.94%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -5.54%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 15:06 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -10.77%E -3.21%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -12.90%E -3.63%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -10.77%E -3.21%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -12.90%E -3.63%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -7.99%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 15:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.82%EV -10.16%E -5.52%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -7.99%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 15:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -10.64%E -5.82%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -13.43%E -4.13%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 48.80%EV -13.09%E -7.35%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.47%EV -12.90%E -3.63%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -13.43%E -4.13%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.84%EV -10.64%E -5.82%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%EV -21.49%E -6.71%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.76%E -4.61%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-02 15:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.76%E -4.61%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-02 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.76%E -4.61%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-02 15:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.76%E -4.61%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-02 15:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -17.43%E -5.62%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -12.11%E -6.73%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 1.9% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.81% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.04% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.15% | 2.0% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.73% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.88% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.39% | 2.3% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.73% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.88% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.39% | 2.3% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.66% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.01% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33% | 2.5% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |