La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Al-Fateh v Neom
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Al-Fateh (Local)
Predicción 26.64%3.75momio equitativo
EV -3.31%
Ventaja -0.912%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.63
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.52%26.61%26.69%27.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.403.453.6332.26%29.44%28.99%27.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Neom (Visitante)
Predicción 48.83%2.05momio equitativo
EV -3.32%
Ventaja -1.68%
Kelly -3.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.98
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.84%48.84%48.74%50.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.781.881.871.9856.18%53.33%53.48%50.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 24.54%4.08momio equitativo
EV -1.61%
Ventaja -0.402%
Kelly -0.536%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.01
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.70%24.55%24.58%26.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.633.654.0131.25%27.52%27.40%24.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.75%EV -3.31%E -0.912%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.04%EV -3.32%E -1.68%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.21%EV -1.61%E -0.402%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Coral | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.99%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 15:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -9.22%E -2.49%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
| Pinnacle | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.58%EV -4.64%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.31%EV -3.81%E -1.93%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.11%EV -7.01%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 15:35 |
| SportsBet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.77%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.23%E -3.80%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -11.67%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |
| Paddy Power | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -6.77%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -8.69%E -4.65%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.67%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -6.77%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.03%EV -11.13%E -6.12%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.23%E -3.80%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 15:06 |
| Unibet | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Grosvenor | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 15:21 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.20%E -4.36%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -11.67%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 15:21 |
| LeoVegas | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -8.10%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.20%E -4.36%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -11.67%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Sky Bet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -10.77%E -3.21%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.06%EV -9.18%E -4.94%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -5.54%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 15:06 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -10.77%E -3.21%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -12.90%E -3.63%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -10.77%E -3.21%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -12.90%E -3.63%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
| betfred_uk | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -7.99%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 15:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.82%EV -10.16%E -5.52%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -7.99%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 15:05 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -10.64%E -5.82%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -13.43%E -4.13%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 48.80%EV -13.09%E -7.35%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.47%EV -12.90%E -3.63%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-02 15:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -13.43%E -4.13%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.84%EV -10.64%E -5.82%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%EV -21.49%E -6.71%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |
| 888sport | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.76%E -4.61%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-02 15:40 |
| William Hill | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.76%E -4.61%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-02 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.76%E -4.61%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-02 15:40 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.76%E -4.61%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.67%E -5.23%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-02 15:40 |
| BoyleSports | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -17.43%E -5.62%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -12.11%E -6.73%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -14.13%E -4.04%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 1.9% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.81% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.04% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.15% | 2.0% | 2026-05-02 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.73% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.88% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.39% | 2.3% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.73% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.88% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.39% | 2.3% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Smarkets | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.66% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.01% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33% | 2.5% | 2026-05-02 15:30 |