The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Fateh v Diriyah Club

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Fateh 1–2 Diriyah Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fateh (Local)

Prediction 22.65%4.42fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -0.607%
Kelly -0.791%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.36%22.69%22.77%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.873.904.3028.99%25.81%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diriyah Club (Visit)

Prediction 54.09%1.85fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.555%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.46%54.04%54.07%55.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.721.731.8362.11%58.04%57.80%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.26%4.30fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -0.662%
Kelly -0.870%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.68%23.26%23.16%25.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.773.704.1828.57%26.50%27.03%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 22.65%; Diriyah Club (Visit): 54.09%; Draw: 23.26%. For Diriyah Club (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.83, with an expected value of -1.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -2.61%E -0.607%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -10.75%E -6.52%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:20
Pinnacle🎯4.27I 23.42%NM 22.20%EV -3.29%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.12%EV -6.97%E -4.05%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.68%EV -2.77%E -0.662%K -0.870%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 17:31
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.34%E -3.05%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 17:41
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.34%E -3.05%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -6.42%E -3.71%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.67%E -5.79%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -11.61%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:41
1xBet🎯4.11I 24.33%NM 22.77%EV -6.91%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.48%EV -5.34%E -3.05%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.75%EV -8.35%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 17:41
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -9.41%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -1.02%E -0.555%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 17:26
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.41%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.42%E -3.71%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -12.77%E -3.41%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -9.41%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.03%EV -9.13%E -5.43%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-09 17:34
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -9.41%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -9.67%E -5.79%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -12.77%E -3.41%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 17:41
Winamax (DE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -10.54%E -2.67%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -9.13%E -5.43%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:39
Unibet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.26%EV -10.54%E -2.67%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.61%EV -12.92%E -8.02%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -11.61%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-09 17:40
SportsBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.84%EV -2.10%E -1.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -16.26%E -4.52%K -6.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:26
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -9.67%E -5.79%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 17:40
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -9.67%E -5.79%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -9.67%E -5.79%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 17:41
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -9.67%E -5.79%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 17:41
Winamax (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -12.80%E -3.33%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.86%EV -10.21%E -6.15%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 17:41
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -17.33%E -4.75%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.65%EV -3.18%E -1.78%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:41
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -17.33%E -4.75%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.65%EV -3.18%E -1.78%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -17.33%E -4.75%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.65%EV -3.18%E -1.78%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -17.33%E -4.75%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.65%EV -3.18%E -1.78%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -17.33%E -4.75%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.65%EV -3.18%E -1.78%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:41
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -17.33%E -4.75%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.65%EV -3.18%E -1.78%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -13.93%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:40
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -18.47%E -5.13%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.54%EV -9.67%E -5.79%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -11.61%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-09 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.91%EV -19.60%E -5.52%K -7.69%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.53%EV -5.34%E -3.05%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -16.26%E -4.52%K -6.25%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-09 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.94%EV -20.73%E -5.92%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.46%EV -6.42%E -3.71%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.59%EV -17.42%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-09 17:41
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.94%EV -20.73%E -5.92%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.46%EV -6.42%E -3.71%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.59%EV -17.42%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-09 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 24.91%EV -21.86%E -6.34%K -8.92%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.54%EV -8.05%E -4.73%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -18.58%E -5.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-09 17:41
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.3%2026-09-09 17:41
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-09-09 17:26
Smarkets◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.33%2.0%2026-09-09 17:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%2.2%2026-09-09 17:36
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%2.2%2026-09-09 17:36