The School of Odds
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Al-Fateh v Al-Hilal

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 19:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fateh (Local)

Prediction 8.78%11.38fair odd
EV +9.81%
Edge +0.785%
Kelly +0.853%
Growth +0.084%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.46%8.84%8.85%9.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.2510.0012.5011.11%9.75%10.00%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hilal (Visit)

Prediction 77.91%1.28fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -10.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.68%77.89%77.68%80.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.181.181.2590.09%84.72%84.75%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.31%7.51fair odd
EV +9.40%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.122%

assuming max odds 8.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.83%13.27%13.47%15.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.676.508.2218.18%15.00%15.38%12.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 8.78%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 77.91%; Draw: 13.31%. For Al-Fateh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.38. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.78%EV +9.81%E +0.785%K +0.853%G +0.084%1.21I 82.64%NM 80.39%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%8.22I 12.17%NM 11.83%EV +9.40%E +1.14%K +1.30%G +0.122%2.8%2026-03-14 18:59
Pinnacle🎯11.07I 9.03%NM 8.54%EV -2.75%E -0.249%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.42%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.04%EV +4.47%E +0.570%K +0.653%G +0.029%5.8%2026-03-14 18:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.54%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -4.95%E -4.06%K -22.52%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -0.185%E -0.025%K -0.029%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 19:00
Coral🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.54%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -4.95%E -4.06%K -22.52%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -0.185%E -0.025%K -0.029%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -3.37%E -0.306%K -0.337%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.36%EV -9.63%E -8.30%K -60.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -0.185%E -0.025%K -0.029%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 19:00
SportsBet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV +5.42%E +0.452%K +0.493%G +0.027%1.12I 89.29%NM 80.47%EV -12.74%E -11.38%K -106.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -0.185%E -0.025%K -0.029%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 19:00
Paddy Power🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV +5.42%E +0.452%K +0.493%G +0.027%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.61%EV -13.52%E -12.18%K -122.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -0.185%E -0.025%K -0.029%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -7.76%E -0.739%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -6.84%E -0.977%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 19:00
Sky Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.87%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.47%EV -11.97%E -10.59%K -92.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -6.84%E -0.977%K -1.14%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-14 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV -7.76%E -0.739%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.67%EV -2.62%E -2.09%K -10.47%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.20%EV -10.17%E -1.51%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV +5.42%E +0.452%K +0.493%G +0.027%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.98%EV -10.41%E -9.05%K -69.38%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -10.17%E -1.51%K -1.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.50%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.06%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.43%EV -10.17%E -1.51%K -1.77%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-14 18:59
888sport🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.84%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -13.49%E -2.08%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 18:59
William Hill🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.84%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -13.49%E -2.08%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 18:59
BoyleSports🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.79%EV -20.94%E -2.33%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.65%EV -10.41%E -9.05%K -69.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.56%EV -13.49%E -2.08%K -2.45%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-14 19:00
Unibet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.33%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -14.82%E -2.32%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 19:00
Grosvenor🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.33%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -14.82%E -2.32%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 19:00
LeoVegas🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.48%EV -6.51%E -5.43%K -32.56%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.34%EV -14.82%E -2.32%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯9.30I 10.75%NM 9.60%EV -18.30%E -1.97%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.33%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.06%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.06%EV -15.49%E -2.44%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -16.54%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.85%EV -6.51%E -5.43%K -32.56%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -16.82%E -2.69%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -3.37%E -0.306%K -0.337%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.46%EV -9.63%E -8.30%K -60.18%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -16.82%E -2.69%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-14 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.79%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -18.82%E -3.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.79%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -18.82%E -3.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.79%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -18.82%E -3.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.37%EV -16.54%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.05%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.59%EV -18.82%E -3.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.37%EV -16.54%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.05%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.59%EV -18.82%E -3.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 19:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -16.54%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -20.15%E -3.36%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-14 19:00
888sport (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -16.54%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -20.15%E -3.36%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-14 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.63%EV -12.15%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 75.68%EV -11.19%E -9.81%K -79.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.69%EV -26.80%E -4.87%K -5.96%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-14 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎15.00I 6.67%NM 6.58%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.21%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.21%1.4%2026-03-14 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎15.00I 6.67%NM 6.56%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.00%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.44%1.6%2026-03-14 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎15.00I 6.67%NM 6.51%1.19I 84.03%NM 82.12%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.36%2.3%2026-03-14 19:00
Smarkets◎13.50I 7.41%NM 7.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.96%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.85%2.9%2026-03-14 19:00
Kalshi◎11.11I 9.00%NM 8.74%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.60%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66%3.0%2026-03-14 19:00