The School of Odds
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Al-Ettifaq v Al-Shabab

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ettifaq (Local)

Prediction 28.65%3.49fair odd
EV -0.581%
Edge -0.167%
Kelly -0.235%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.45%28.61%28.83%29.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.103.4733.33%31.61%32.26%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Shabab (Visit)

Prediction 46.65%2.14fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.29%46.72%46.46%48.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.972.002.0754.64%50.65%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.70%4.05fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.302%
Kelly -0.402%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.92%24.68%24.70%27.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.603.554.0032.26%27.82%28.17%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ettifaq (Local): 28.65%; Al-Shabab (Visit): 46.65%; Draw: 24.70%. For Al-Ettifaq (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.47, with an expected value of -0.581%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 27.96%EV -0.581%E -0.167%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.79%EV -5.30%E -2.61%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%EV -1.21%E -0.302%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 18:50
Pinnacle🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -1.73%E -0.504%K -0.711%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.33%EV -8.10%E -4.11%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.92%EV -1.70%E -0.427%K -0.571%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 18:50
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -2.59%E -0.761%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -6.70%E -3.35%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -2.59%E -0.761%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.70%E -3.35%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 18:44
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -2.59%E -0.761%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.25%EV -11.36%E -5.98%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -9.96%E -5.16%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 18:44
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -12.76%E -6.83%K -14.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-07 18:49
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.67%EV -13.70%E -7.40%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -13.56%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-07 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -6.70%E -3.35%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.45%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.25%EV -14.63%E -7.99%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.30%EV -23.43%E -7.56%K -11.16%G +0.000%18.2%2026-03-07 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.14%EV -10.61%E -3.40%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.46%EV -6.70%E -3.35%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.40%EV -11.58%E -3.23%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 18:48
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -3.43%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -3.43%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -3.43%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -3.43%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -3.43%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.43%EV -3.43%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.41%EV -8.56%E -4.37%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 18:50
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -10.90%E -5.71%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.56%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-07 18:45
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -10.90%E -5.71%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.56%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-07 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -10.90%E -5.71%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.56%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-07 18:44
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -10.90%E -5.71%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.56%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-07 18:44
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -12.61%E -4.14%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -4.37%E -2.13%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -13.56%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 18:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -12.61%E -4.14%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -4.37%E -2.13%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -13.56%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 18:04
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.34%EV -12.61%E -4.14%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.13%EV -9.50%E -4.90%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-07 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 29.79%EV -13.47%E -4.46%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.21%EV -7.17%E -3.60%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.99%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-07 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -14.05%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -6.70%E -3.35%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -16.03%E -4.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -14.05%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -6.70%E -3.35%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -16.03%E -4.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 18:04
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.80%EV -14.05%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.21%EV -14.63%E -7.99%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.00%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-07 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-03-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-03-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%1.5%2026-03-07 18:54
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-03-07 18:45
Smarkets◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.41%2.4%2026-03-07 18:55