The School of Odds
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Al-Ettifaq v Al-Riyadh

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ettifaq (Local)

Prediction 45.48%2.20fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.95%45.29%45.54%46.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.032.1252.36%49.55%49.26%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Riyadh (Visit)

Prediction 29.48%3.39fair odd
EV +1.99%
Edge +0.575%
Kelly +0.809%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.07%29.52%29.53%30.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.093.103.4635.71%32.40%32.26%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.04%3.99fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.25%25.18%24.93%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.543.553.8132.26%28.27%28.17%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ettifaq (Local): 45.48%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 29.48%; Draw: 25.04%. For Al-Riyadh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82%EV -3.58%E -1.69%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.07%EV +1.99%E +0.575%K +0.809%G +0.016%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.11%EV -6.84%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-09 17:50
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.20%E -1.29%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -7.34%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.77%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.67%E -1.77%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.34%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -9.04%E -4.52%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.67%E -1.77%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.34%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-09 17:34
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.14%EV -4.04%E -1.91%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.86%EV -5.97%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.00%EV -4.59%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 17:40
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -7.22%E -3.54%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.15%E -2.27%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 17:45
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -7.22%E -3.54%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.15%E -2.27%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 17:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -7.22%E -3.54%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.15%E -2.27%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -7.22%E -3.54%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.15%E -2.27%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 17:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -7.22%E -3.54%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.15%E -2.27%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -7.22%E -3.54%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.15%E -2.27%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 17:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.88%EV -11.77%E -6.07%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -7.15%E -2.27%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -6.09%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.47%EV -5.40%E -2.60%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -8.62%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.84%E -2.73%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.15%EV -9.95%E -5.03%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -8.62%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -6.09%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 17:35
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.03%EV -8.13%E -4.03%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -8.62%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.03%EV -8.13%E -4.03%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -8.62%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 17:45
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.04%E -4.52%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.62%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.84%E -2.73%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 17:35
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.04%E -4.52%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.62%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.84%E -2.73%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.40%EV -9.50%E -4.77%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.62%E -2.78%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-09 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.13%EV -11.77%E -6.07%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.34%EV -10.09%E -3.31%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -8.59%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-09 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.98%EV -9.95%E -5.03%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.31%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -13.60%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-09 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.98%EV -9.95%E -5.03%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.31%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -13.60%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-09 17:45
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.04%E -4.52%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.57%E -3.86%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-09 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.10%EV -11.77%E -6.07%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -11.57%E -3.86%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -14.85%E -4.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-09 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -13.13%E -6.88%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -11.57%E -3.86%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -22.37%E -7.21%K -10.65%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-09 17:50
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -6.77%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -14.52%E -5.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -17.36%E -5.26%K -7.55%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-09 17:35
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -6.77%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -14.52%E -5.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -17.36%E -5.26%K -7.55%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-09 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -6.77%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -14.52%E -5.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -17.36%E -5.26%K -7.55%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-09 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -6.77%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -14.52%E -5.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -17.36%E -5.26%K -7.55%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-09 17:35
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.37%EV -11.31%E -5.80%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -17.46%E -6.24%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-09 17:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-04-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-04-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-04-09 17:40
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.71%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.20%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%2.2%2026-04-09 17:50
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.19%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.85%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.96%4.1%2026-04-09 17:45