Language:English
Al-Ahli v Al-Kholood
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ahli (Local)
Prediction 74.41%1.34fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -3.72%
Kelly -17.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.12%74.39%74.82%78.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.231.231.2884.03%81.43%81.30%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Kholood (Visit)
Prediction 9.23%10.83fair odd
EV +16.32%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.230%
assuming max odds 12.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.71%9.21%9.16%9.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.869.5012.6011.11%10.14%10.53%7.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.36%6.11fair odd
EV +14.04%
Edge +2.01%
Kelly +2.35%
Growth +0.330%
assuming max odds 6.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.94%16.40%16.01%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.555.506.9722.22%18.02%18.18%14.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ahli (Local): 74.41%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 9.23%; Draw: 16.36%. For Al-Kholood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.83. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.35%EV -7.74%E -6.24%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 12.60I 7.94%NM 7.71%EV +16.32%E +1.30%K +1.41%G +0.230% | 6.97I 14.35%NM 13.94%EV +14.04%E +2.01%K +2.35%G +0.330% | 2.9% | 2026-05-16 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.39%EV -8.48%E -6.89%K -36.87%G +0.000% | 11.12I 8.99%NM 8.45%EV +2.66%E +0.239%K +0.263%G +0.007% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.16%EV +1.44%E +0.232%K +0.277%G +0.004% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.38%EV -9.22%E -7.56%K -41.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -3.06%E -0.292%K -0.322%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -5.11%E -0.880%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.36%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.59%EV -5.11%E -0.880%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.76%E -3.72%K -17.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.76%E -3.72%K -17.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 17:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV +1.55%E +0.141%K +0.155%G +0.002% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV +1.55%E +0.141%K +0.155%G +0.002% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.83%EV -9.97%E -8.24%K -47.47%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -16.91%E -1.88%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-16 17:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -7.74%E -6.24%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.65%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -7.74%E -6.24%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.65%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -7.74%E -6.24%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.65%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 73.93%EV -11.46%E -9.63%K -60.29%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.78%EV -16.91%E -1.88%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.29%EV -11.65%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-16 17:52 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.76%EV -9.97%E -8.24%K -47.47%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.84%EV -13.29%E -2.51%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.76%EV -9.97%E -8.24%K -47.47%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.84%EV -13.29%E -2.51%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.48%E -6.89%K -36.87%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -16.91%E -1.88%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -18.19%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -9.22%E -7.56%K -41.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -16.91%E -1.88%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -18.19%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 72.12%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.65%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -26.37%E -5.86%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.59% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.93% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.07% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.44% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.86% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.70% | 2.0% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.65% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.19% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.17% | 3.0% | 2026-05-16 18:00 |