A Escola das Odds

Al-Ahli v Al-Kholood

Início: 2026-05-16 18:02 UTC

Final: Al-Ahli 3–0 Al-Kholood

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

30 casas de apostas (6 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Al-Ahli (Local)

Previsão 74.41%1.34odd justa
EV -4.76%
Vantagem -3.72%
Kelly -17.00%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.28

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
72.12%74.39%74.82%78.35%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.191.231.231.2884.03%81.43%81.30%78.13%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Al-Kholood (Visitante)

Previsão 9.23%10.83odd justa
EV +16.32%
Vantagem +1.30%
Kelly +1.41%
Crescimento +0.230%

pressupondo odds máximas de 12.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
7.71%9.21%9.16%9.93%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
9.009.869.5012.6011.11%10.14%10.53%7.94%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 16.36%6.11odd justa
EV +14.04%
Vantagem +2.01%
Kelly +2.35%
Crescimento +0.330%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.97

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.94%16.40%16.01%19.23%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
4.505.555.506.9722.22%18.02%18.18%14.35%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (30 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
1xBet1.24I 80.65%NM 78.35%EV -7.74%E -6.24%K -32.23%G +0.000%12.60I 7.94%NM 7.71%EV +16.32%E +1.30%K +1.41%G +0.230%6.97I 14.35%NM 13.94%EV +14.04%E +2.01%K +2.35%G +0.330%2.9%2026-05-16 17:59
Pinnacle1.23I 81.30%NM 76.39%EV -8.48%E -6.89%K -36.87%G +0.000%11.12I 8.99%NM 8.45%EV +2.66%E +0.239%K +0.263%G +0.007%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.16%EV +1.44%E +0.232%K +0.277%G +0.004%6.4%2026-05-16 17:59
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.38%EV -9.22%E -7.56%K -41.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -3.06%E -0.292%K -0.322%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -5.11%E -0.880%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:00
William Hill1.20I 83.33%NM 75.36%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.59%EV -5.11%E -0.880%K -1.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 18:00
Coral1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.76%E -3.72%K -17.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.76%E -3.72%K -17.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 18:00
Unibet (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 17:59
888sport1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 17:59
888sport (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 17:59
Mr Green (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -5.92%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 17:59
Unibet1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:00
Unibet (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:00
Grosvenor1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:00
Unibet (NL)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:00
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 17:59
ATG (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:00
Svenska Spel1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.99%E -5.59%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:00
SportsBet1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV +1.55%E +0.141%K +0.155%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 18:00
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV +1.55%E +0.141%K +0.155%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 18:00
Unibet (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 73.83%EV -9.97%E -8.24%K -47.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -16.91%E -1.88%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 17:59
Sky Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -10.01%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -7.74%E -6.24%K -32.23%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.65%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 18:00
LeoVegas1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -7.74%E -6.24%K -32.23%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.65%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 18:00
Winamax (DE)1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -7.74%E -6.24%K -32.23%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.65%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 18:00
PMU (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 73.93%EV -11.46%E -9.63%K -60.29%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.78%EV -16.91%E -1.88%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.29%EV -11.65%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-16 17:52
LiveScore Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 73.76%EV -9.97%E -8.24%K -47.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.84%EV -13.29%E -2.51%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 18:00
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 73.76%EV -9.97%E -8.24%K -47.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -12.30%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.84%EV -13.29%E -2.51%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 18:00
Winamax (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -8.48%E -6.89%K -36.87%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -16.91%E -1.88%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -18.19%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-16 18:00
Betclic (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -9.22%E -7.56%K -41.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -16.91%E -1.88%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -18.19%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-16 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 72.12%EV -10.71%E -8.93%K -53.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.65%EV -7.68%E -0.768%K -0.853%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -26.37%E -5.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-16 18:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.59%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05%0.7%2026-05-16 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.93%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.07%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%1.0%2026-05-16 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%1.3%2026-05-16 18:00
Kalshi1.25I 80.00%NM 78.44%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.86%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.70%2.0%2026-05-16 18:00
Smarkets1.25I 80.00%NM 77.65%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.19%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.17%3.0%2026-05-16 18:00