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Al-Ahli v Al-Ittihad

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ahli (Local)

Prediction 48.41%2.07fair odd
EV -5.60%
Edge -2.87%
Kelly -5.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.46%48.48%48.39%51.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.831.831.9558.14%54.69%54.64%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ittihad (Visit)

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV +7.51%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +2.46%
Growth +0.184%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.65%26.43%26.39%27.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.623.604.0631.25%27.65%27.78%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.11%3.98fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.796%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%25.09%25.23%26.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.643.703.8631.25%27.50%27.03%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ahli (Local): 48.41%; Al-Ittihad (Visit): 26.48%; Draw: 25.11%. For Al-Ittihad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.25%EV -6.57%E -3.41%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.89%EV +7.51%E +1.85%K +2.46%G +0.184%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.86%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-06 18:55
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -13.83%E -7.77%K -17.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV +1.95%E +0.507%K +0.685%G +0.013%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -13.83%E -7.77%K -17.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV +1.95%E +0.507%K +0.685%G +0.013%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -13.83%E -7.77%K -17.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV +1.95%E +0.507%K +0.685%G +0.013%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -13.83%E -7.77%K -17.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV +1.95%E +0.507%K +0.685%G +0.013%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -13.83%E -7.77%K -17.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV +1.95%E +0.507%K +0.685%G +0.013%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -13.83%E -7.77%K -17.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV +1.95%E +0.507%K +0.685%G +0.013%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.74%EV -14.80%E -8.41%K -19.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV +1.95%E +0.507%K +0.685%G +0.013%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-06 18:10
LeoVegas🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.74%EV -14.80%E -8.41%K -19.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV +1.95%E +0.507%K +0.685%G +0.013%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-06 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.82%EV -16.74%E -9.73%K -23.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -0.697%E -0.186%K -0.253%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.42%EV -8.35%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-06 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.82%EV -16.74%E -9.73%K -23.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -0.697%E -0.186%K -0.253%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.42%EV -8.35%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-06 18:10
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -12.86%E -7.15%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -2.02%E -0.546%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-06 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.36%EV -6.57%E -3.41%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.96%EV -2.82%E -0.767%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.68%EV -3.07%E -0.796%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-06 18:50
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -5.60%E -2.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-06 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.60%E -2.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -11.41%E -6.24%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -4.58%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -12.86%E -7.15%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-06 18:56
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -12.86%E -7.15%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-06 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.14%EV -16.25%E -9.40%K -22.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.29%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -19.65%E -6.14%K -8.93%G +0.000%17.6%2026-03-06 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.85%EV -9.96%E -5.35%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.11%EV -7.85%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.03%EV -8.85%E -2.44%K -3.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-06 18:41
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.46%EV -5.60%E -2.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -8.64%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 18:40
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -10.44%E -5.65%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.62%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-06 18:45
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -10.44%E -5.65%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.62%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-06 18:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -10.44%E -5.65%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.62%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-06 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -10.44%E -5.65%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.62%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-06 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.24%EV -10.44%E -5.65%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.40%EV -10.49%E -3.10%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.35%EV -11.61%E -3.30%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -8.02%E -4.22%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -11.29%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.80%EV -8.99%E -4.78%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-06 18:40
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.74%EV -11.41%E -6.24%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.30%EV -15.26%E -4.77%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.85%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-06 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-03-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-03-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-03-06 18:55
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 50.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%3.3%2026-03-06 18:55