Language:English
Vitória SC v Tondela
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vitória SC (Local)
Prediction 50.18%1.99fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.582%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.08%50.32%50.13%52.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.831.851.9758.48%54.73%54.05%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tondela (Visit)
Prediction 22.75%4.40fair odd
EV +4.64%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.060%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.21%22.62%22.75%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.224.204.6026.67%23.68%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.07%3.69fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -0.656%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.86%27.06%27.12%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.433.453.6333.33%29.16%28.99%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitória SC (Local): 50.18%; Tondela (Visit): 22.75%; Draw: 27.07%. For Tondela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -10.68%E -6.00%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV +4.64%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-03 16:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -10.68%E -6.00%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV +4.64%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-03 16:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -11.18%E -6.32%K -14.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV +4.64%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -11.18%E -6.32%K -14.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV +4.64%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -11.18%E -6.32%K -14.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV +4.64%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -11.18%E -6.32%K -14.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV +4.64%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.83%EV -11.68%E -6.64%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV +4.64%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.83%EV -11.68%E -6.64%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV +4.64%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.29%EV -6.16%E -3.30%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.31%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.40%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.29%EV -6.16%E -3.30%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.31%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.40%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.60%EV -11.68%E -6.64%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.60%EV -11.68%E -6.64%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.60%EV -11.68%E -6.64%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -12.19%E -6.96%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -12.19%E -6.96%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -13.19%E -7.62%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-03 16:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -13.19%E -7.62%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV +2.36%E +0.525%K +0.675%G +0.016% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-03 16:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +0.088%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-03 16:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.66%EV -14.19%E -8.30%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV +0.088%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -9.31%E -2.78%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-03 16:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -9.17%E -5.07%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -2.19%E -0.508%K -0.663%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-03 16:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -2.19%E -0.508%K -0.663%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.01%EV -3.15%E -1.63%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.50%EV -2.41%E -0.563%K -0.734%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.50%EV -4.97%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.71%EV -5.66%E -3.01%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -3.32%E -0.782%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -3.89%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 16:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -5.66%E -3.01%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -2.54%E -0.705%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.85%EV -5.66%E -3.01%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.58%EV -5.60%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -4.16%E -2.18%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -6.74%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -4.16%E -2.18%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -6.74%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-03 16:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.14%EV -6.67%E -3.58%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.74%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -6.87%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -6.74%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.74%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-03 16:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.25%EV -1.15%E -0.582%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 24.02%EV -8.10%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.73%EV -1.72%E -0.475%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -8.17%E -4.47%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -2.54%E -0.705%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.23%EV -5.66%E -3.01%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -9.31%E -2.78%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-03 16:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.66%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-03 16:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -5.66%E -3.01%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -5.66%E -3.01%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.04%EV -9.17%E -5.07%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.93%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -9.31%E -2.78%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-03 16:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -5.66%E -3.01%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -5.24%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-03 16:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.66%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.66%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.66%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.66%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.17%E -3.87%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.66%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -4.16%E -2.18%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -13.56%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.95%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-03 16:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.57%EV -7.67%E -4.17%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -13.56%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-03 16:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.08%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -14.70%E -3.92%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -18.78%E -6.26%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.05% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.05% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.18% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.92% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.96% | 3.9% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |