La scuola delle quote

Tondela v Moreirense FC

Inizio: 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Finale: Tondela 2–0 Moreirense FC

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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59 bookmaker (20 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Tondela (Casa)

Previsione 49.05%2.04quota equa
EV -2.89%
Vantaggio -1.46%
Kelly -2.95%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.98

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
47.03%49.15%49.09%51.53%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.761.881.901.9856.82%53.26%52.63%50.51%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Moreirense FC (Trasferta)

Previsione 23.51%4.25quota equa
EV +1.10%
Vantaggio +0.257%
Kelly +0.334%
Crescita +0.004%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.30

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
21.68%23.51%23.44%25.17%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.604.024.004.3027.78%24.89%25.00%23.26%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 27.44%3.64quota equa
EV -2.59%
Vantaggio -0.729%
Kelly -1.01%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.55

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
26.03%27.34%27.47%28.80%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.003.393.403.5533.33%29.51%29.41%28.17%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (59 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:35
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:35
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:34
Svenska Spel1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:35
Bally Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:34
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:35
TABtouch1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -10.73%E -5.90%K -13.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:35
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -10.73%E -5.90%K -13.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.07%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 51.07%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet (NL)1.81I 55.25%NM 51.07%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -11.71%E -6.51%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -1.25%E -0.297%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:35
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -11.71%E -6.51%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -1.25%E -0.297%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:34
PMU (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.15%EV -12.70%E -7.13%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -1.25%E -0.297%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Virgin Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.15%EV -12.70%E -7.13%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -1.25%E -0.297%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.53%EV -11.71%E -6.51%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -2.42%E -0.584%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -2.59%E -0.729%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:19
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 49.01%EV -2.89%E -1.46%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.50%EV -2.89%E -0.701%K -0.925%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.49%EV -3.14%E -0.888%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-11 18:35
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 18:20
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 18:33
BetOnline.ag1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -7.30%E -3.86%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
LowVig.ag1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -7.30%E -3.86%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 50.95%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-11 18:34
Pinnacle1.97I 50.76%NM 48.80%EV -3.38%E -1.71%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.50%EV -3.83%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.70%EV -4.78%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-11 18:35
GTbets1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.24%EV -4.30%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.25%EV -4.78%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:33
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 16:24
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Bovada1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:34
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 18:20
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 18:34
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -9.26%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:20
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -9.26%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:19
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -9.26%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:19
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -9.26%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:19
Marathon Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.44%EV -6.42%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.49%EV -10.73%E -5.90%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -7.13%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:19
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.16%EV -4.85%E -2.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 48.16%EV -4.85%E -2.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:35
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -11.71%E -6.51%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:19
Unibet (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.95%EV -10.73%E -5.90%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 18:19
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 48.46%EV -5.83%E -3.04%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -9.48%E -2.46%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:34
NetBet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.26%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -9.48%E -2.46%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-11 18:34
Sky Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -10.65%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:34
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -8.28%E -4.43%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -10.65%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-11 18:34
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.83%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 18:34
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.83%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 18:35
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.83%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Bet Victor1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -11.83%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:34
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -2.89%E -1.46%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -13.00%E -3.51%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -2.89%E -1.46%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -13.00%E -3.51%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.21%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.00%EV -15.36%E -4.27%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.80%EV -17.68%E -5.89%K -8.84%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-11 18:19
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.04%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-05-11 18:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-05-11 18:35
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%1.6%2026-05-11 18:35