La escuela de los momios

Tondela v Moreirense FC

Inicio: 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Final: Tondela 2–0 Moreirense FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tondela (Local)

Predicción 49.05%2.04momio equitativo
EV -2.89%
Ventaja -1.46%
Kelly -2.95%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.03%49.15%49.09%51.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.761.881.901.9856.82%53.26%52.63%50.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Moreirense FC (Visitante)

Predicción 23.51%4.25momio equitativo
EV +1.10%
Ventaja +0.257%
Kelly +0.334%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.68%23.51%23.44%25.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.024.004.3027.78%24.89%25.00%23.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.44%3.64momio equitativo
EV -2.59%
Ventaja -0.729%
Kelly -1.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.03%27.34%27.47%28.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.393.403.5533.33%29.51%29.41%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:35
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:35
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:34
Svenska Spel1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:35
Bally Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:34
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +1.10%E +0.257%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:35
TABtouch1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -10.73%E -5.90%K -13.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:35
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -10.73%E -5.90%K -13.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.07%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 51.07%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet (NL)1.81I 55.25%NM 51.07%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -0.072%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -11.71%E -6.51%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -1.25%E -0.297%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:35
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -11.71%E -6.51%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -1.25%E -0.297%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:34
PMU (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.15%EV -12.70%E -7.13%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -1.25%E -0.297%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Virgin Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.15%EV -12.70%E -7.13%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -1.25%E -0.297%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.53%EV -11.71%E -6.51%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -2.42%E -0.584%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -2.59%E -0.729%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:19
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 49.01%EV -2.89%E -1.46%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.50%EV -2.89%E -0.701%K -0.925%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.49%EV -3.14%E -0.888%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-11 18:35
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 18:20
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 18:33
BetOnline.ag1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -7.30%E -3.86%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
LowVig.ag1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -7.30%E -3.86%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 50.95%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -3.60%E -0.878%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-11 18:34
Pinnacle1.97I 50.76%NM 48.80%EV -3.38%E -1.71%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.50%EV -3.83%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.70%EV -4.78%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-11 18:35
GTbets1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.24%EV -4.30%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.25%EV -4.78%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:33
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 16:24
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Bovada1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:34
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 18:20
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 18:34
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -9.26%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:20
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -9.26%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:19
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -9.26%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:19
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -9.26%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -5.95%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:19
Marathon Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.44%EV -6.42%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.49%EV -10.73%E -5.90%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -7.13%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:19
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.16%EV -4.85%E -2.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 48.16%EV -4.85%E -2.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:35
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.32%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -11.71%E -6.51%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:19
Unibet (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.95%EV -10.73%E -5.90%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.30%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 18:19
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 48.46%EV -5.83%E -3.04%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -9.48%E -2.46%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:34
NetBet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.26%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -9.48%E -2.46%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-11 18:34
Sky Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -10.65%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:34
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -8.28%E -4.43%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -10.65%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-11 18:34
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.83%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 18:34
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -4.36%E -2.23%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.83%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 18:35
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.83%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Bet Victor1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.81%E -3.58%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -11.83%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:34
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -2.89%E -1.46%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -13.00%E -3.51%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -2.89%E -1.46%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -13.00%E -3.51%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.21%EV -10.24%E -5.60%K -12.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.00%EV -15.36%E -4.27%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.80%EV -17.68%E -5.89%K -8.84%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-11 18:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.04%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-05-11 18:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-05-11 18:35
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%1.6%2026-05-11 18:35