Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tondela v AVS Futebol SAD

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 20:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tondela (Local)

Prediction 51.32%1.95fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.80%51.28%51.27%52.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.811.821.8857.80%55.12%54.95%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AVS Futebol SAD (Visit)

Prediction 20.64%4.84fair odd
EV +0.947%
Edge +0.194%
Kelly +0.243%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.53%20.67%20.65%22.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.504.504.8924.39%22.21%22.22%20.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.538%
Kelly -0.753%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%28.05%28.08%29.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.353.5033.33%30.07%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tondela (Local): 51.32%; AVS Futebol SAD (Visit): 20.64%; Draw: 28.03%. For AVS Futebol SAD (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.84. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.947%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.10%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.71%EV +0.947%E +0.194%K +0.243%G +0.002%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.18%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-21 20:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.85%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV +0.121%E +0.025%K +0.031%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.58%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 20:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.85%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV +0.121%E +0.025%K +0.031%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.58%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 20:09
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -0.911%E -0.190%K -0.240%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 19:43
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.45%EV -4.03%E -2.15%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.25%EV -1.94%E -0.409%K -0.518%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-21 20:09
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.97%EV -2.98%E -0.633%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 20:14
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.97%EV -2.98%E -0.633%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 20:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.86%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -2.98%E -0.633%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 19:38
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.81%EV -5.57%E -3.03%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.47%EV -2.72%E -0.785%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 15:34
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
Bally Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.20%EV -8.13%E -4.54%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 20:00
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.20%EV -8.13%E -4.54%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 20:19
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 20:04
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 19:44
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.55%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 16:10
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -4.03%E -2.15%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 20:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 16:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 16:09
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 18:49
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 20:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 20:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 20:00
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 20:10
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 20:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 20:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 20:10
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 19:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -9.16%E -5.17%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -9.16%E -5.17%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.23%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.29%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 19:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -10.19%E -5.82%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 20:00
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -10.19%E -5.82%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 16:29
GTbets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -3.51%E -1.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -8.14%E -1.83%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.76%EV -3.56%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 12:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -8.14%E -1.83%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 20:10
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.38%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.14%E -1.83%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 20:10
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.38%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.14%E -1.83%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 20:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 16:09
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 16:09
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 20:04
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 20:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -9.16%E -5.17%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -10.29%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 20:10
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.93%EV -11.21%E -6.48%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.42%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-21 20:00
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -10.61%E -2.45%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 12:15
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.58%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -10.61%E -2.45%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 20:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.46%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -11.23%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 15:34
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:50
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -11.21%E -6.48%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.00%EV -15.90%E -5.30%K -7.95%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-21 19:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -15.36%E -3.75%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-21 15:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-03-21 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.4%2026-03-21 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.4%2026-03-21 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.4%2026-03-21 20:25
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%1.9%2026-03-21 18:50
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.39%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.21%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-03-21 20:25