La escuela de los momios

Tondela v AVS Futebol SAD

Inicio: 2026-03-21 20:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tondela (Local)

Predicción 51.32%1.95momio equitativo
EV -3.51%
Ventaja -1.87%
Kelly -3.99%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.80%51.28%51.27%52.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.811.821.8857.80%55.12%54.95%53.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

AVS Futebol SAD (Visitante)

Predicción 20.64%4.84momio equitativo
EV +0.947%
Ventaja +0.194%
Kelly +0.243%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.89

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.53%20.67%20.65%22.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.104.504.504.8924.39%22.21%22.22%20.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.03%3.57momio equitativo
EV -1.88%
Ventaja -0.538%
Kelly -0.753%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.76%28.05%28.08%29.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.353.5033.33%30.07%29.85%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.85I 54.05%NM 52.10%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.71%EV +0.947%E +0.194%K +0.243%G +0.002%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.18%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-21 20:25
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.85%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV +0.121%E +0.025%K +0.031%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.58%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 20:09
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.85%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV +0.121%E +0.025%K +0.031%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.58%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 20:09
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -0.911%E -0.190%K -0.240%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 19:43
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 51.45%EV -4.03%E -2.15%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.25%EV -1.94%E -0.409%K -0.518%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-21 20:09
Bovada1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.97%EV -2.98%E -0.633%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 20:14
BetUS1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.97%EV -2.98%E -0.633%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 20:14
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.86%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -2.98%E -0.633%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 19:38
Betclic (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.81%EV -5.57%E -3.03%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.47%EV -2.72%E -0.785%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 15:34
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
Casumo1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
Bally Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
betPARX1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
Svenska Spel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 20:00
BetRivers1.79I 55.87%NM 52.20%EV -8.13%E -4.54%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 20:00
TABtouch1.79I 55.87%NM 52.20%EV -8.13%E -4.54%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 20:19
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 20:04
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -5.04%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 19:44
Coolbet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.55%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 16:10
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -4.03%E -2.15%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 20:05
Unibet (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 16:09
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 16:09
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 18:49
Unibet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 20:05
Unibet (NL)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 20:00
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 20:00
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 20:10
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 20:09
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 20:09
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 20:10
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 19:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -9.16%E -5.17%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 20:00
LiveScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -9.16%E -5.17%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 20:00
PMU (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.23%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.29%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 19:44
Virgin Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -10.19%E -5.82%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 20:00
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -10.19%E -5.82%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -7.10%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 16:29
GTbets1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -3.51%E -1.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -8.14%E -1.83%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.76%EV -3.56%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 12:05
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -8.14%E -1.83%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 20:10
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.38%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.14%E -1.83%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 20:10
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 50.38%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.14%E -1.83%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 20:09
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 16:09
Bet Right1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 16:09
Parions Sport (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -7.62%E -4.23%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 20:04
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 20:10
NetBet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -9.16%E -5.17%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -10.29%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 20:10
LeoVegas1.73I 57.80%NM 51.93%EV -11.21%E -6.48%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.42%EV -9.17%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -8.89%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-21 20:00
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -10.61%E -2.45%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 12:15
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 50.58%EV -6.08%E -3.32%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -10.61%E -2.45%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.49%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 20:10
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.46%EV -6.59%E -3.62%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -11.23%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -1.88%E -0.538%K -0.753%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 15:34
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:50
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:49
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.05%E -2.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -11.21%E -6.48%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -13.30%E -3.17%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.00%EV -15.90%E -5.30%K -7.95%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-21 19:54
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -8.65%E -4.86%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -15.36%E -3.75%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-21 15:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-03-21 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.4%2026-03-21 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.4%2026-03-21 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.4%2026-03-21 20:25
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%1.9%2026-03-21 18:50
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.39%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.21%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-03-21 20:25