La escuela de los momios

Sporting Lisbon v Santa Clara

Inicio: 2026-04-03 19:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Predicción 70.56%1.42momio equitativo
EV -1.22%
Ventaja -0.869%
Kelly -3.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.92%70.45%70.53%74.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.241.311.301.4080.65%76.39%76.92%71.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Santa Clara (Visitante)

Predicción 10.53%9.50momio equitativo
EV +15.83%
Ventaja +1.44%
Kelly +1.58%
Crecimiento +0.251%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.65%10.62%10.47%12.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.259.179.3011.0013.79%10.91%10.75%9.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.91%5.29momio equitativo
EV +5.90%
Ventaja +1.05%
Kelly +1.28%
Crecimiento +0.076%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.99%18.94%19.00%20.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.335.025.105.6023.09%19.91%19.61%17.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 74.35%EV -9.68%E -7.57%K -34.58%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +15.83%E +1.44%K +1.58%G +0.251%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.99%EV +5.90%E +1.05%K +1.28%G +0.076%5.1%2026-04-03 18:55
Svenska Spel1.29I 77.52%NM 73.19%EV -8.98%E -6.96%K -30.96%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV +10.57%E +1.01%K +1.11%G +0.117%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.81%EV +0.224%E +0.042%K +0.052%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 19:01
ATG (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 73.19%EV -8.98%E -6.96%K -30.96%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV +10.57%E +1.01%K +1.11%G +0.117%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.81%EV +0.224%E +0.042%K +0.052%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 19:01
SportsBet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.57%EV -9.68%E -7.57%K -34.58%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +10.57%E +1.01%K +1.11%G +0.117%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 19:05
LowVig.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.26%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.61%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.13%EV +0.224%E +0.042%K +0.052%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-03 19:15
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.26%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.61%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.13%EV +0.224%E +0.042%K +0.052%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-03 19:15
Grosvenor1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.68%E -7.57%K -34.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -0.722%E -0.137%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 19:01
betPARX1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.68%E -7.57%K -34.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -0.722%E -0.137%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 19:01
Casumo1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.68%E -7.57%K -34.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -0.722%E -0.137%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 19:01
Bally Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.68%E -7.57%K -34.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -0.722%E -0.137%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 19:01
Paddy Power1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -8.98%E -6.96%K -30.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 19:05
Unibet1.27I 78.74%NM 72.93%EV -10.39%E -8.18%K -38.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 19:01
Unibet (NL)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.93%EV -10.39%E -8.18%K -38.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 19:01
Unibet (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.93%EV -10.39%E -8.18%K -38.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 19:01
BetRivers1.27I 78.74%NM 72.93%EV -10.39%E -8.18%K -38.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 19:01
TABtouch1.27I 78.74%NM 72.93%EV -10.39%E -8.18%K -38.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 19:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 72.83%EV -11.09%E -8.81%K -42.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.99%EV -3.56%E -0.698%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-03 19:01
LiveScore Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 72.83%EV -11.09%E -8.81%K -42.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.99%EV -3.56%E -0.698%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-03 19:01
PMU (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -11.80%E -9.44%K -47.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -3.56%E -0.698%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-03 19:01
Virgin Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -11.80%E -9.44%K -47.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV +5.30%E +0.530%K +0.589%G +0.031%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -3.56%E -0.698%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-03 19:01
Pinnacle1.34I 74.63%NM 71.63%EV -5.45%E -4.07%K -16.03%G +0.000%9.97I 10.03%NM 9.63%EV +4.98%E +0.500%K +0.556%G +0.028%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.75%EV -3.18%E -0.621%K -0.772%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-03 19:15
Coolbet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.82%EV -4.74%E -3.51%K -13.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.06%EV +0.035%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 19:25
Fanatics1.31I 76.34%NM 72.08%EV -7.57%E -5.78%K -24.41%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV +0.035%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -0.722%E -0.137%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 19:19
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -8.98%E -6.96%K -30.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV +0.035%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 19:20
FanDuel1.27I 78.74%NM 72.32%EV -10.39%E -8.18%K -38.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV +0.035%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -3.56%E -0.698%K -0.868%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-03 19:19
LeoVegas1.24I 80.65%NM 72.54%EV -12.51%E -10.09%K -52.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV +0.035%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-03 19:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 70.41%EV -11.80%E -9.44%K -47.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.26%EV +0.035%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.33%EV -18.12%E -4.18%K -5.44%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-03 19:05
BetUS1.33I 75.19%NM 71.10%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.17%EV -2.07%E -0.223%K -0.249%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.73%EV -4.50%E -0.892%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-03 19:24
DraftKings1.34I 74.63%NM 70.58%EV -5.45%E -4.07%K -16.03%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV -5.23%E -0.581%K -0.654%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-03 19:19
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -8.27%E -6.36%K -27.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -5.23%E -0.581%K -0.654%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 19:25
PointsBet (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.04%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -5.23%E -0.581%K -0.654%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -10.18%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 19:24
Bet Right1.34I 74.63%NM 69.44%EV -5.45%E -4.07%K -16.03%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -5.23%E -0.581%K -0.654%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -13.01%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 19:24
Winamax (DE)1.29I 77.52%NM 71.87%EV -8.98%E -6.96%K -30.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -5.23%E -0.581%K -0.654%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.83%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-03 19:25
Everygame1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -8.27%E -6.36%K -27.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.23%E -0.581%K -0.654%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 18:35
Betclic (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.07%EV -8.27%E -6.36%K -27.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -5.23%E -0.581%K -0.654%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -6.39%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 19:13
Winamax (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -10.39%E -8.18%K -38.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -5.23%E -0.581%K -0.654%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 19:10
Betsson1.35I 74.07%NM 69.41%EV -4.74%E -3.51%K -13.55%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.65%EV -7.34%E -0.834%K -0.940%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -11.12%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-03 19:15
NordicBet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.41%EV -4.74%E -3.51%K -13.55%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.65%EV -7.34%E -0.834%K -0.940%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -11.12%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-03 19:15
Marathon Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.03%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -10.49%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.34%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 19:15
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 69.76%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -10.49%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -9.23%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 18:49
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 69.76%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -10.49%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -9.23%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 18:50
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.76%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -10.49%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -9.23%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 18:50
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.76%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -10.49%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -9.23%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 18:50
NetBet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.01%EV -8.27%E -6.36%K -27.57%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.03%EV -13.13%E -1.59%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.96%EV -9.23%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 19:10
1xBet1.40I 71.43%NM 69.28%EV -1.22%E -0.869%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.21I 12.18%NM 11.81%EV -13.55%E -1.65%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.91%EV -2.99%E -0.583%K -0.724%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-03 19:24
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -3.33%E -2.43%K -9.01%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -15.76%E -1.97%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -9.23%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-03 19:25
Betway1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -4.04%E -2.97%K -11.22%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -15.76%E -1.97%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -14.90%E -3.31%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 19:14
PlayUp1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -4.74%E -3.51%K -13.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -15.76%E -1.97%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -13.01%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 19:15
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -15.76%E -1.97%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -10.18%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 19:01
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 68.41%EV -6.16%E -4.63%K -18.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -15.76%E -1.97%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -14.90%E -3.31%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 19:10
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -4.04%E -2.97%K -11.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -21.02%E -2.80%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -0.722%E -0.137%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -4.04%E -2.97%K -11.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -21.02%E -2.80%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -0.722%E -0.137%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 18:35
Neds1.35I 74.07%NM 69.16%EV -4.74%E -3.51%K -13.55%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.88%EV -23.66%E -3.26%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.16%EV -4.74%E -3.51%K -13.55%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.88%EV -23.66%E -3.26%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -1.67%E -0.321%K -0.397%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 18:34
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 68.51%EV -4.04%E -2.97%K -11.22%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -23.66%E -3.26%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -5.45%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 18:42
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.64%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08%0.6%2026-04-03 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.64%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08%0.6%2026-04-03 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.64%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08%0.6%2026-04-03 19:25
Matchbook1.35I 74.07%NM 73.64%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08%0.6%2026-04-03 19:25
Kalshi1.33I 75.19%NM 74.30%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.89%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.81%1.2%2026-04-03 18:50
Smarkets1.34I 74.63%NM 73.27%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.55%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18%1.8%2026-04-03 19:25