Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Lisbon v Alverca

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 19:33 UTC

Final: Sporting Lisbon 3–1 Alverca

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Prediction 77.25%1.29fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -13.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.08%77.37%77.06%79.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.201.201.2586.96%83.62%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alverca (Visit)

Prediction 8.36%11.96fair odd
EV +25.38%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +1.81%
Growth +0.460%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.24%8.28%8.48%9.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.5711.5015.0010.53%8.64%8.70%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.39%6.95fair odd
EV +7.96%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.097%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.45%14.34%14.46%16.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.476.507.5017.54%15.46%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 77.25%; Alverca (Visit): 8.36%; Draw: 14.39%. For Alverca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.96. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +25.38%E +1.69%K +1.81%G +0.460%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 15:14
Casumo🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Grosvenor🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%7.4%2026-08-22 14:50
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%7.4%2026-08-22 18:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.03%EV -11.17%E -9.71%K -74.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 19:19
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.22%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.10%G +0.000%12.65I 7.91%NM 7.58%EV +5.74%E +0.454%K +0.493%G +0.028%7.26I 13.77%NM 13.20%EV +4.50%E +0.620%K +0.719%G +0.032%4.3%2026-08-22 19:20
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +4.48%E +0.359%K +0.390%G +0.017%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -17.95%E -3.15%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 12:35
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +4.48%E +0.359%K +0.390%G +0.017%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -17.95%E -3.15%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 12:39
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.42%EV -4.99%E -4.05%K -21.68%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 19:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -10.04%E -1.61%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 19:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.16%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV +3.64%E +0.505%K +0.587%G +0.021%7.0%2026-08-22 19:25
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +7.96%E +1.06%K +1.22%G +0.097%7.1%2026-08-22 14:50
Bet Right🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 19:20
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -17.23%E -3.00%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:20
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%8.1%2026-08-22 15:05
BetUS🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.34%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.10%G +0.000%11.65I 8.58%NM 8.03%EV -2.62%E -0.225%K -0.246%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 19:24
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.3%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 18:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 19:00
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 18:59
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 18:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -11.17%E -9.71%K -74.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.04%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -11.17%E -9.71%K -74.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.04%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 18:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -11.17%E -9.71%K -74.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.04%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 19:00
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-22 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 19:05
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.10%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 19:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 19:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -10.04%E -1.61%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.79%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.73%EV -2.12%E -0.312%K -0.365%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 19:09
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.71%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -2.84%E -0.420%K -0.494%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 19:24
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:25
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:24
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.57%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.18%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.73%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.16%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.42%EV -10.14%E -0.944%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.84%EV -12.19%E -2.00%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 19:04
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.96%EV -4.21%E -3.40%K -17.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -10.04%E -1.61%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.08%EV -4.21%E -3.40%K -17.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -16.51%E -2.85%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 19:05
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.08%EV -4.21%E -3.40%K -17.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -16.51%E -2.85%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 19:05
betano_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 19:23
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 19:24
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -16.41%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 19:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.05%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -16.41%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.70%EV -2.84%E -0.420%K -0.494%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 18:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.25%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -16.41%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.75%EV -12.19%E -2.00%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.43%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -20.59%E -2.17%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.24I 80.65%NM 80.61%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.90%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.49%0.0%2026-08-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 81.10%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.44%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47%0.3%2026-08-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.23I 81.30%NM 80.92%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-08-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.23I 81.30%NM 80.92%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-08-22 19:25
Matchbook1.23I 81.30%NM 80.67%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%0.8%2026-08-22 19:25
Kalshi1.22I 81.97%NM 80.38%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.86%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.75%2.0%2026-08-22 19:00