Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sporting Lisbon v Alverca

Início: 2026-08-22 19:33 UTC

Final: Sporting Lisbon 3–1 Alverca

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Previsão 77.25%1.29odd justa
EV -3.44%
Vantagem -2.75%
Kelly -13.77%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
75.08%77.37%77.06%79.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.151.201.201.2586.96%83.62%83.33%80.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alverca (Visitante)

Previsão 8.36%11.96odd justa
EV +25.38%
Vantagem +1.69%
Kelly +1.81%
Crescimento +0.460%

pressupondo odds máximas de 15.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
6.24%8.28%8.48%9.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
9.5011.5711.5015.0010.53%8.64%8.70%6.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 14.39%6.95odd justa
EV +7.96%
Vantagem +1.06%
Kelly +1.22%
Crescimento +0.097%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.45%14.34%14.46%16.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.706.476.507.5017.54%15.46%15.38%13.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 77.25%; Alverca (Visitante): 8.36%; Empate: 14.39%. Para Alverca (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 11.96. 20 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 15.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +25.38%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +25.38%E +1.69%K +1.81%G +0.460%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 15:14
Casumo🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Grosvenor🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%7.4%2026-08-22 14:50
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%7.4%2026-08-22 18:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.03%EV -11.17%E -9.71%K -74.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV +8.66%E +0.666%K +0.722%G +0.063%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 19:19
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.22%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.10%G +0.000%12.65I 7.91%NM 7.58%EV +5.74%E +0.454%K +0.493%G +0.028%7.26I 13.77%NM 13.20%EV +4.50%E +0.620%K +0.719%G +0.032%4.3%2026-08-22 19:20
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +4.48%E +0.359%K +0.390%G +0.017%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -17.95%E -3.15%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 12:35
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +4.48%E +0.359%K +0.390%G +0.017%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -17.95%E -3.15%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 12:39
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.42%EV -4.99%E -4.05%K -21.68%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 19:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -10.04%E -1.61%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 19:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.16%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV +3.64%E +0.505%K +0.587%G +0.021%7.0%2026-08-22 19:25
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +7.96%E +1.06%K +1.22%G +0.097%7.1%2026-08-22 14:50
Bet Right🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 19:20
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -17.23%E -3.00%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:20
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +0.305%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%8.1%2026-08-22 15:05
BetUS🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.34%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.10%G +0.000%11.65I 8.58%NM 8.03%EV -2.62%E -0.225%K -0.246%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 19:24
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.3%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 18:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 19:00
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 18:59
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.17%EV -10.39%E -8.96%K -64.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 18:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -11.17%E -9.71%K -74.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.04%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -11.17%E -9.71%K -74.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.04%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 18:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -11.17%E -9.71%K -74.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -3.87%E -0.337%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.04%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 19:00
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-22 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -3.44%E -2.75%K -13.77%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 19:05
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -6.53%E -5.40%K -31.10%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +0.760%E +0.109%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 19:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 19:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -10.04%E -1.61%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.79%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.73%EV -2.12%E -0.312%K -0.365%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 19:09
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.71%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -2.84%E -0.420%K -0.494%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 19:24
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:25
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 19:24
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.57%EV -9.62%E -8.22%K -56.59%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -8.05%E -0.732%K -0.805%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.18%EV -7.88%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.73%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.16%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.42%EV -10.14%E -0.944%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.84%EV -12.19%E -2.00%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 19:04
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.96%EV -4.21%E -3.40%K -17.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -10.04%E -1.61%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.08%EV -4.21%E -3.40%K -17.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -16.51%E -2.85%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 19:05
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.08%EV -4.21%E -3.40%K -17.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -16.51%E -2.85%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 19:05
betano_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 19:23
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.23%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -13.63%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 19:24
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -5.76%E -4.72%K -26.18%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -16.41%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 19:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.05%EV -7.30%E -6.09%K -36.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -16.41%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.70%EV -2.84%E -0.420%K -0.494%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 18:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.25%EV -8.85%E -7.50%K -49.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -16.41%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.75%EV -12.19%E -2.00%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.43%EV -8.08%E -6.79%K -42.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -20.59%E -2.17%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -6.44%E -0.990%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 18:59
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.61%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.90%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.49%0.0%2026-08-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 81.10%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.44%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47%0.3%2026-08-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 80.92%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-08-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 80.92%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-08-22 19:25
Matchbook◎1.23I 81.30%NM 80.67%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%0.8%2026-08-22 19:25
Kalshi◎1.22I 81.97%NM 80.38%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.86%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.75%2.0%2026-08-22 19:00