Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.97
assuming max odds 5.00
assuming max odds 3.25
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santa Clara (Local): 49.68%; Nacional (Visit): 20.40%; Draw: 29.92%. For Nacional (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.90. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.01%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.76%EV -2.14%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +2.01%E +0.402%K +0.502%G +0.010% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.02%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-10 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.76%EV -2.14%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +2.01%E +0.402%K +0.502%G +0.010% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.02%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-10 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.89%EV -4.12%E -2.14%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.81I 20.79%NM 20.02%EV -1.87%E -0.388%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-10 19:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.02%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -2.07%E -0.431%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-10 19:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.40%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -2.07%E -0.431%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -8.74%E -2.87%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.18%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -2.07%E -0.431%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-10 19:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.45%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -2.07%E -0.431%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -4.11%E -0.875%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.08%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.11%E -0.875%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.84%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -4.11%E -0.875%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.21%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -4.11%E -0.875%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-10 19:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.28%EV -3.63%E -1.87%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.65%EV -5.54%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.07%EV -4.85%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-10 18:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-10 16:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-10 19:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.36%EV -6.11%E -3.23%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -6.65%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-10 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-10 19:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-10 19:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.28%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.83%EV -9.21%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.82%EV -9.21%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.72%EV -3.13%E -1.60%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.63%EV -8.14%E -2.65%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-10 18:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.63%EV -11.08%E -6.19%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.63%EV -11.08%E -6.19%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.50%EV -9.59%E -5.27%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.47%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.65%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.65%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.65%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.56%EV -12.07%E -6.82%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.56%EV -12.07%E -6.82%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.56%EV -12.07%E -6.82%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.14%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -11.66%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-10 18:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -11.66%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -11.66%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.48%EV -3.13%E -1.60%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -12.27%E -2.85%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-10 18:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -12.27%E -2.85%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-10 16:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -12.27%E -2.85%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-10 16:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.72%EV -13.06%E -7.47%K -17.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -12.27%E -2.85%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-10 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.87%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV -13.29%E -3.13%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-10 16:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.51%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -13.29%E -3.13%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-10 18:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.42%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -14.31%E -3.41%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-10 18:45 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.17% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.58% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.25% | 0.2% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.17% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.58% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.25% | 0.2% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.17% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.58% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.25% | 0.2% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.30% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.18% | 0.4% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.61% | 0.5% | 2026-08-10 19:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.01% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41% | 2.1% | 2026-08-10 19:05 |
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