The School of Odds

Santa Clara v Nacional

2026-08-10 19:15 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Santa Clara (Local)

Prediction 44.51%2.25fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.99%44.34%44.47%45.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.902.062.052.1552.63%48.47%48.78%46.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Nacional (Visit)

Prediction 26.94%3.71fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.37%27.01%26.99%27.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.363.403.5032.79%29.75%29.41%28.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.55%3.50fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.859%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.92%28.66%28.55%29.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.183.4033.33%31.26%31.45%29.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.31%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -2.92%E -0.859%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 10:19
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.31%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.78%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 10:55
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.31%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -11.49%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 11:45
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.31%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -11.49%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 11:49
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.31%E -2.01%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -11.49%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 11:45
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.78%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-27 11:06
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -9.74%E -2.91%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -5.78%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-27 10:45
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -7.43%E -3.57%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.05%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -4.35%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-27 11:00
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.76%E -4.28%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.78%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-27 10:55
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.76%E -4.28%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.78%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-27 10:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.76%E -4.28%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.78%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-27 10:55
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.76%E -4.28%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.49%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-27 10:49
Betclic (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.03%EV -10.10%E -5.00%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -7.05%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.60%EV -9.20%E -2.89%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-27 10:49
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -10.99%E -5.49%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -12.44%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -11.49%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-27 11:00
Unibet (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 44.71%EV -12.77%E -6.52%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.73%EV -12.91%E -4.23%K -6.30%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-27 10:50
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 44.55%EV -12.77%E -6.52%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.29%EV -13.79%E -4.31%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -11.49%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-27 10:50
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 44.32%EV -15.44%E -8.13%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.61%EV -17.83%E -5.84%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.07%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-27 10:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 43.99%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.23%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.78%16.6%2026-07-27 10:50