Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Santa Clara v Nacional

Início: 2026-08-10 19:15 UTC

Final: Santa Clara 2–2 Nacional

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Santa Clara (Local)

Previsão 49.68%2.01odd justa
EV -2.14%
Vantagem -1.08%
Kelly -2.20%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.97

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.28%49.76%49.56%51.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.751.861.851.9757.14%53.82%54.05%50.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nacional (Visitante)

Previsão 20.40%4.90odd justa
EV +2.01%
Vantagem +0.402%
Kelly +0.502%
Crescimento +0.010%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.21%20.39%20.55%21.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.204.524.505.0023.81%22.11%22.22%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.92%3.34odd justa
EV -2.76%
Vantagem -0.848%
Kelly -1.23%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.39%29.85%29.89%32.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.133.113.2533.33%31.95%32.15%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Santa Clara (Local): 49.68%; Nacional (Visitante): 20.40%; Empate: 29.92%. Para Nacional (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.90. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.01%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.76%EV -2.14%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +2.01%E +0.402%K +0.502%G +0.010%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.02%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-10 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.76%EV -2.14%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +2.01%E +0.402%K +0.502%G +0.010%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.02%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-10 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.89%EV -4.12%E -2.14%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 20.02%EV -1.87%E -0.388%K -0.490%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-10 19:05
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.02%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -2.07%E -0.431%K -0.545%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-10 19:05
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.40%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -2.07%E -0.431%K -0.545%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -8.74%E -2.87%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-10 19:10
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.18%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -2.07%E -0.431%K -0.545%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-10 19:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.45%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -2.07%E -0.431%K -0.545%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-10 19:00
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-10 19:10
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-10 19:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-10 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-10 19:10
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -3.09%E -0.651%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-10 19:10
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -4.11%E -0.875%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-10 19:00
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.08%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.11%E -0.875%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-10 19:10
SportsBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.84%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -4.11%E -0.875%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-10 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.21%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -4.11%E -0.875%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-10 19:04
GTbets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.28%EV -3.63%E -1.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.65%EV -5.54%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.07%EV -4.85%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-10 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 18:55
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 18:55
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 18:55
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-10 16:40
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.36%EV -6.11%E -3.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -6.65%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 19:00
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-10 19:05
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-10 19:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-10 19:05
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.28%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.83%EV -9.21%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-10 19:00
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.82%EV -9.21%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-10 19:10
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.72%EV -3.13%E -1.60%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-10 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-10 19:00
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-10 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-10 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.63%EV -8.14%E -2.65%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-10 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.63%EV -11.08%E -6.19%K -14.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-10 18:55
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.63%EV -11.08%E -6.19%K -14.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-10 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.50%EV -9.59%E -5.27%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.47%EV -10.23%E -2.33%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-10 19:10
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-10 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.65%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-10 18:55
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.65%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-10 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.65%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-10 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.56%EV -12.07%E -6.82%K -15.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-10 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.56%EV -12.07%E -6.82%K -15.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-10 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.56%EV -12.07%E -6.82%K -15.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%EV -11.25%E -2.59%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-10 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.14%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -11.66%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-10 18:29
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -11.66%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-10 19:10
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -11.66%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-10 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.48%EV -3.13%E -1.60%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -12.27%E -2.85%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-10 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -12.27%E -2.85%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-10 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -12.27%E -2.85%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-10 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.72%EV -13.06%E -7.47%K -17.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -12.27%E -2.85%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-10 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.87%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV -13.29%E -3.13%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-10 16:50
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.51%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -13.29%E -3.13%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-10 18:45
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.42%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -14.31%E -3.41%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -7.25%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-10 18:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 50.17%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.25%0.2%2026-08-10 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 50.17%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.25%0.2%2026-08-10 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 50.17%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.25%0.2%2026-08-10 19:10
Smarkets◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.30%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.18%0.4%2026-08-10 19:10
Matchbook◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.61%0.5%2026-08-10 19:10
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-08-10 19:05