Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional v Famalicão

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:31 UTC

Final: Nacional 0–4 Famalicão

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional (Local)

Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.274%
Kelly +0.355%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.73%23.04%23.00%25.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.934.004.4028.17%25.42%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Famalicão (Visit)

Prediction 48.62%2.06fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.25%48.54%48.71%49.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.931.932.0255.56%51.77%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.37%3.52fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.26%28.42%28.29%29.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.303.4032.26%30.68%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 23.00%; Famalicão (Visit): 48.62%; Draw: 28.37%. For Nacional (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +1.21%E +0.274%K +0.355%G +0.004%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.56%EV -4.09%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-19 14:16
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -1.09%E -0.254%K -0.331%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.22%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:24
FanDuel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -1.09%E -0.254%K -0.331%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -1.09%E -0.254%K -0.331%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 14:06
BetOnline.ag🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 14:21
BetUS🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 14:20
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 14:26
Marathon Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.22%EV -8.10%E -4.29%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 14:25
PlayUp🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 14:26
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 14:15
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.05%EV -4.70%E -2.40%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:21
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 14:05
Coolbet🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.57%EV -7.07%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.14%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 14:11
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-19 14:06
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:05
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 14:06
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 14:06
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.97%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 14:20
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 14:02
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 14:26
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 14:21
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -12.04%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:15
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -12.04%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:21
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -12.04%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -12.04%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:16
betano_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 14:24
Bet Victor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 14:25
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-19 14:09
GTbets🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.62%EV -8.45%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.97%EV -4.70%E -2.40%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.41%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:01
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.94%EV -6.64%E -3.46%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 14:00
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.94%EV -6.64%E -3.46%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.65%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 14:15
BetMGM🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-19 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.11%EV -12.48%E -6.93%K -15.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-19 14:06
Betclic (FR)🎯3.78I 26.46%NM 23.61%EV -13.05%E -3.45%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.76%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.63%EV -8.35%E -2.58%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-19 14:11
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:26
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:26
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:26
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
betPARX🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Bally Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -14.89%E -4.03%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 14:06
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -16.04%E -4.40%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.97%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 14:06
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -17.19%E -4.78%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-19 14:26
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -17.19%E -4.78%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-19 14:26
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -17.19%E -4.78%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.75%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -18.34%E -5.17%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -18.34%E -5.17%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -18.34%E -5.17%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 14:26
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -18.34%E -5.17%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.37%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-19 14:26
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.98%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.03%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.99%-0.0%2026-09-19 14:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-09-19 14:26
Matchbook◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-09-19 14:26
Smarkets◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-09-19 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-09-19 14:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-09-19 14:26