L’École des cotesodds.school
Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)
+ Nouveau modèleTous les modèles

Nacional v Famalicão

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-19 14:31 UTC

Score final : Nacional 0–4 Famalicão

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Nacional (Local)

Prévision 23.00%4.35cote équitable
EV +1.21%
Avantage +0.274%
Kelly +0.355%
Croissance +0.004%

avec la cote maximale 4.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.73%23.04%23.00%25.27%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.553.934.004.4028.17%25.42%25.00%22.73%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Famalicão (Visiteur)

Prévision 48.62%2.06cote équitable
EV -1.78%
Avantage -0.881%
Kelly -1.75%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.25%48.54%48.71%49.96%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.801.931.932.0255.56%51.77%51.81%49.50%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 28.37%3.52cote équitable
EV -3.53%
Avantage -1.04%
Kelly -1.47%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.26%28.42%28.29%29.72%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.103.263.303.4032.26%30.68%30.30%29.41%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Nacional (Local) : 23.00% ; Famalicão (Visiteur) : 48.62% ; Match nul : 28.37%. Pour Nacional (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.35. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.40, soit une espérance positive de +1.21%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +1.21%E +0.274%K +0.355%G +0.004%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.56%EV -4.09%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-19 14:16
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -1.09%E -0.254%K -0.331%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.22%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:24
FanDuel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -1.09%E -0.254%K -0.331%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -1.09%E -0.254%K -0.331%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 14:06
BetOnline.ag🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 14:21
BetUS🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 14:20
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 14:26
Marathon Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.22%EV -8.10%E -4.29%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 14:25
PlayUp🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 14:26
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 14:15
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.05%EV -4.70%E -2.40%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:21
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 14:05
Coolbet🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.57%EV -7.07%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.14%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 14:11
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-19 14:06
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:05
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 14:06
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 14:06
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.97%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 14:20
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 14:02
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 14:26
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 14:21
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -12.04%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:15
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -12.04%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:21
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -12.04%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -12.04%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:16
betano_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 14:24
Bet Victor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 14:25
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-19 14:09
GTbets🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.62%EV -8.45%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.97%EV -4.70%E -2.40%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.41%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:01
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.94%EV -6.64%E -3.46%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 14:00
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.94%EV -6.64%E -3.46%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.65%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 14:15
BetMGM🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-19 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.11%EV -12.48%E -6.93%K -15.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-19 14:06
Betclic (FR)🎯3.78I 26.46%NM 23.61%EV -13.05%E -3.45%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.76%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.63%EV -8.35%E -2.58%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-19 14:11
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:26
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:26
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:26
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
betPARX🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Bally Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -1.78%E -0.881%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 14:25
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -13.74%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -14.89%E -4.03%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -7.62%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -4.94%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 14:06
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -16.04%E -4.40%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.97%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 14:06
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -17.19%E -4.78%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-19 14:26
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -17.19%E -4.78%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-19 14:26
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -17.19%E -4.78%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.75%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -9.20%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -18.34%E -5.17%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -18.34%E -5.17%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -18.34%E -5.17%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 14:26
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -18.34%E -5.17%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.37%EV -6.16%E -3.19%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -10.62%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-19 14:26
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.98%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.03%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.99%-0.0%2026-09-19 14:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-09-19 14:26
Matchbook◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-09-19 14:26
Smarkets◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-09-19 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-09-19 14:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-09-19 14:26