L’École des cotes

Nacional v Estoril

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-15 15:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Nacional (Local)

Prévision 40.07%2.50cote équitable
EV -1.83%
Avantage -0.746%
Kelly -1.26%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.08%40.15%40.10%41.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.152.302.302.4546.51%43.49%43.48%40.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Estoril (Visiteur)

Prévision 33.32%3.00cote équitable
EV -1.70%
Avantage -0.575%
Kelly -0.870%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.61%33.28%33.37%34.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.822.802.9540.00%35.42%35.71%33.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.61%3.76cote équitable
EV -0.225%
Avantage -0.060%
Kelly -0.082%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.06%26.58%26.53%27.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.503.503.7532.26%28.56%28.57%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.45I 40.82%NM 39.46%EV -1.83%E -0.746%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.69%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.85%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-15 15:15
BetOnline.ag2.44I 40.98%NM 39.39%EV -2.23%E -0.914%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 15:05
LowVig.ag2.44I 40.98%NM 39.39%EV -2.23%E -0.914%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 15:05
1xBet2.40I 41.67%NM 40.44%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.12%EV -2.36%E -0.806%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.44%EV -2.35%E -0.641%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-15 15:25
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.48%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 15:05
Bovada2.39I 41.84%NM 39.43%EV -4.23%E -1.77%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 15:15
BetUS2.39I 41.84%NM 39.43%EV -4.23%E -1.77%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 15:20
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.63%EV -7.36%E -2.65%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:05
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.63%EV -7.36%E -2.65%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:05
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:25
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:20
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:25
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:25
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 40.26%EV -5.03%E -2.12%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.24%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 14:45
Marathon Bet2.36I 42.37%NM 39.53%EV -5.44%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -6.36%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -9.01%E -2.63%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 15:25
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 15:10
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 15:24
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 15:25
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 15:05
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 15:05
Betclic (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 41.06%EV -7.04%E -3.03%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.85%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -2.89%E -0.791%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 14:43
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -0.225%E -0.060%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 14:50
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 14:50
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 14:45
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 14:45
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 40.54%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -2.89%E -0.791%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 14:50
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-15 14:45
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-15 14:44
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 15:25
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 15:25
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.03%E -3.71%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-15 15:04
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-15 15:25
GTbets2.28I 43.86%NM 41.21%EV -8.64%E -3.79%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.39%EV -5.28%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 14:45
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 14:35
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 14:35
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-15 14:50
Parions Sport (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 15:10
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -2.89%E -0.791%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 14:45
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -16.69%E -6.68%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -17.52%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-15 15:25
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 09:10
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 09:10
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 09:09
Bally Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 09:09
BetRivers2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 14:50
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 15:05
NetBet (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 40.80%EV -11.04%E -4.98%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-15 14:50
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 40.21%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.77%EV -12.69%E -4.84%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-15 14:40
Virgin Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 41.72%EV -12.65%E -5.80%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 14:35
LeoVegas2.15I 46.51%NM 41.90%EV -13.85%E -6.44%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-15 14:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.34%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-03-15 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-03-15 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-03-15 15:25
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.34%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-03-15 15:25
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.58%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26%1.9%2026-03-15 15:20
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.79%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.02%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-03-15 15:15