La escuela de los momios

Nacional v Estoril

Inicio: 2026-03-15 15:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Nacional (Local)

Predicción 40.07%2.50momio equitativo
EV -1.83%
Ventaja -0.746%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.08%40.15%40.10%41.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.302.302.4546.51%43.49%43.48%40.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Estoril (Visitante)

Predicción 33.32%3.00momio equitativo
EV -1.70%
Ventaja -0.575%
Kelly -0.870%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.61%33.28%33.37%34.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.822.802.9540.00%35.42%35.71%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.61%3.76momio equitativo
EV -0.225%
Ventaja -0.060%
Kelly -0.082%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.06%26.58%26.53%27.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.503.503.7532.26%28.56%28.57%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.45I 40.82%NM 39.46%EV -1.83%E -0.746%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.69%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.85%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-15 15:15
BetOnline.ag2.44I 40.98%NM 39.39%EV -2.23%E -0.914%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 15:05
LowVig.ag2.44I 40.98%NM 39.39%EV -2.23%E -0.914%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 15:05
1xBet2.40I 41.67%NM 40.44%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.12%EV -2.36%E -0.806%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.44%EV -2.35%E -0.641%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-15 15:25
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.48%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 15:05
Bovada2.39I 41.84%NM 39.43%EV -4.23%E -1.77%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 15:15
BetUS2.39I 41.84%NM 39.43%EV -4.23%E -1.77%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 15:20
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.63%EV -7.36%E -2.65%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:05
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.63%EV -7.36%E -2.65%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:05
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:25
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:20
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:25
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:25
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 40.26%EV -5.03%E -2.12%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.24%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 14:45
Marathon Bet2.36I 42.37%NM 39.53%EV -5.44%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -6.36%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -9.01%E -2.63%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 15:25
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 15:10
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 15:24
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 15:25
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 15:05
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 15:05
Betclic (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 41.06%EV -7.04%E -3.03%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.85%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -2.89%E -0.791%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 14:43
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -0.225%E -0.060%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 14:50
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 14:50
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 14:45
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 14:45
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 40.54%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -2.89%E -0.791%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 14:50
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-15 14:45
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-15 14:44
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 15:25
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 15:25
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.03%E -3.71%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-15 15:04
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.20%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-15 15:25
GTbets2.28I 43.86%NM 41.21%EV -8.64%E -3.79%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.39%EV -5.28%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 14:45
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 14:35
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 14:35
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -1.56%E -0.420%K -0.576%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-15 14:50
Parions Sport (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 15:10
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -2.89%E -0.791%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 14:45
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -4.22%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -16.69%E -6.68%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -17.52%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-15 15:25
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 09:10
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 09:10
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 09:09
Bally Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -1.70%E -0.575%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.55%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 09:09
BetRivers2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 14:50
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -10.64%E -4.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 15:05
NetBet (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 40.80%EV -11.04%E -4.98%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -8.36%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-15 14:50
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -3.36%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.88%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 14:35
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 40.21%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.77%EV -12.69%E -4.84%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-15 14:40
Virgin Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 41.72%EV -12.65%E -5.80%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -8.21%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 14:35
LeoVegas2.15I 46.51%NM 41.90%EV -13.85%E -6.44%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.54%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-15 14:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.34%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-03-15 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-03-15 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-03-15 15:25
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.34%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-03-15 15:25
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.58%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26%1.9%2026-03-15 15:20
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.79%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.02%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-03-15 15:15