L’École des cotes

Nacional v AVS Futebol SAD

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-02 14:30 UTC

Score final : Nacional 1–2 AVS Futebol SAD

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Nacional (Local)

Prévision 63.33%1.58cote équitable
EV -4.38%
Avantage -2.90%
Kelly -8.58%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.51

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
61.13%63.20%63.38%65.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.401.481.491.5171.43%67.74%67.11%66.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

AVS Futebol SAD (Visiteur)

Prévision 15.77%6.34cote équitable
EV +2.47%
Avantage +0.381%
Kelly +0.450%
Croissance +0.011%

avec la cote maximale 6.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.37%15.81%15.74%17.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.305.865.906.5018.87%17.06%16.95%15.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 20.91%4.78cote équitable
EV -0.686%
Avantage -0.145%
Kelly -0.183%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.65%20.99%20.89%22.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.334.304.7526.67%23.07%23.26%21.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -10.08%E -7.10%K -23.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +2.47%E +0.381%K +0.450%G +0.011%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -1.73%E -0.368%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:00
Pinnacle1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -4.38%E -2.90%K -8.58%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.19%EV +0.109%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.93%EV -3.61%E -0.784%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 14:25
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV -1.47%E -0.235%K -0.279%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 14:15
Betr (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.25%EV -6.28%E -4.24%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -1.47%E -0.235%K -0.279%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -10.10%E -2.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 13:55
GTbets1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.04I 16.56%NM 15.61%EV -4.78%E -0.791%K -0.948%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.53%EV -8.42%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 13:50
Fanatics1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -6.28%E -4.24%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -0.686%E -0.145%K -0.183%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 13:55
DraftKings1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -6.28%E -4.24%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.82%E -0.831%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 13:55
Bovada1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.15%EV -6.96%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:25
BetUS1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.15%EV -6.96%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:25
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:15
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:20
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:15
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:16
Svenska Spel1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:15
betPARX1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:15
Bally Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:15
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -8.81%E -6.12%K -20.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -0.686%E -0.145%K -0.183%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 14:05
Marathon Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.48%EV -6.91%E -4.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.97%EV -6.96%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 14:05
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 62.70%EV -6.28%E -4.24%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 14:15
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -8.18%E -5.64%K -18.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:20
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -8.81%E -6.12%K -20.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 13:50
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -8.81%E -6.12%K -20.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 13:50
FanDuel1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -9.44%E -6.60%K -21.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -3.82%E -0.831%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:19
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -9.44%E -6.60%K -21.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-30 23:59
LowVig.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -9.44%E -6.60%K -21.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 00:00
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -8.81%E -6.12%K -20.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -5.41%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Betclic (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.46%EV -6.91%E -4.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.81%EV -6.98%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 14:10
NordicBet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -6.98%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:20
Betsson1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -6.98%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.14%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV -8.56%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 09:21
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV -8.56%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 09:21
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.05%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -8.56%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.05%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -8.56%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (NL)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.05%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -8.56%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 14:10
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -8.56%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -16.37%E -4.09%K -5.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 14:04
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.33%EV -9.44%E -6.60%K -21.96%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.61%EV -8.56%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.06%EV -10.10%E -2.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 14:10
Coral1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:20
PlayUp1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -6.28%E -4.24%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.10%E -2.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 14:25
LiveScore Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 61.96%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 61.96%EV -5.64%E -3.79%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:15
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -16.37%E -4.09%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-02 14:00
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -16.37%E -4.09%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-02 14:01
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -16.37%E -4.09%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-02 14:00
PMU (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 61.95%EV -6.91%E -4.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -14.28%E -3.48%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Virgin Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 61.95%EV -6.91%E -4.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -14.28%E -3.48%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -11.71%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 14:20
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -11.71%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 14:20
Unibet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 62.98%EV -9.44%E -6.60%K -21.96%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -11.71%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -10.10%E -2.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 14:09
LeoVegas1.45I 68.97%NM 62.01%EV -8.18%E -5.64%K -18.17%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.06%EV -11.71%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -14.28%E -3.48%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-02 14:15
BetMGM1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -5.01%E -3.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -13.29%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.00%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:20
Betway1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -6.28%E -4.24%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -13.29%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 13:46
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -8.81%E -6.12%K -20.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -13.29%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -9.47%E -2.19%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 12:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 61.43%EV -11.34%E -8.10%K -28.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.64%EV -13.29%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -21.59%E -5.76%K -7.85%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-02 13:50
Winamax (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.54%EV -6.91%E -4.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -14.87%E -2.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:05
Winamax (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.38%EV -8.18%E -5.64%K -18.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -16.44%E -3.10%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -8.00%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 14:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.47%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-05-02 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.23%0.9%2026-05-02 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-05-02 14:25
Matchbook1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-05-02 14:25
Smarkets1.51I 66.23%NM 65.08%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.47%1.8%2026-05-02 14:25
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.73%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.64%1.8%2026-05-02 14:25